U.S. Official Says Investors Overestimate Taiwan Conflict Risk

Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Michael DeSombre said Oct. 8 that investors may be overestimating the risk of conflict across the Taiwan Strait, arguing that deterrence can limit the chance of military action against Taiwan.

DeSombre said China and the United States do not want a conflict and that Washington has the ability to deter one. He described Chinese President Xi Jinping as a rational actor who would avoid military action if he believed it could not succeed or would bring major consequences.

The comments narrow the potential outcome under discussion to Beijing attacking or taking Taiwan, rather than preventing every possible conflict in the Taiwan Strait. DeSombre said the prospect of major consequences, combined with effective deterrence, could prevent such an operation by 2027.

U.S. officials have repeatedly said Beijing wants the People’s Liberation Army ready for military action against Taiwan by 2027. Beijing has not publicly confirmed that timeline.

DeSombre said the United States must maintain deterrence together with its allies and partners. The United States and China reached no public agreement on Taiwan at a summit between President Donald Trump and Xi last month.

Trump has paused approval of a proposed $14 billion U.S. arms sale to Taiwan. A previous $11 billion sale in December 2025 prompted a strong reaction from Beijing.