EU Gas Storage Hits Record Seasonal Low Ahead of Winter

European Union gas storage entered the 2026–27 winter at a record seasonal low, increasing the bloc’s reliance on LNG imports and demand-management measures during the heating season.

Storage was 72.4% full on Oct. 3, the lowest level for that date since records began in 2011. A separate Oct. 1 measurement showed inventories at about 811 terawatt-hours, or 74 billion cubic meters, compared with 83% a year earlier.

The shortfall coincides with shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz that have limited LNG exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The waterway carries about 20% of global LNG trade, while Qatar supplied around 8% of EU LNG imports in 2025, increasing competition between Europe and Asia for available cargoes.

Storage could provide 7.3 billion cubic meters less gas between November and March than during the previous winter. Replacing that volume with additional imports would cost an estimated €3 billion, 12% more than the equivalent volume in 2025.

A modeled estimate puts the potential winter gas-demand reduction at 7%, or 14 billion cubic meters, if the storage shortfall coincides with the assumed phaseout of Russian LNG and continued LNG-market disruption. The January 2027 Russian LNG timing is an assumption in that assessment; a separate outlook describes a phaseout of Russian natural-gas imports completed by November 2027 at the latest.

The infrastructure assessment does not forecast actual supply. Under its reference-winter scenario, storage would fall to 29% by March 31, 2027, with optimal LNG supply, and to 13% with tight LNG supply.

Under the assessment’s cold-winter scenario, demand response or potentially uncovered demand would equal about 7% of total demand, or 22 billion cubic meters, with optimal LNG supply. With tight LNG supply, the figure would rise to about 12%, or 40 billion cubic meters.

Europe has approximately 1,600 terawatt-hours of LNG regasification capacity per winter, equivalent to about 145 billion cubic meters. About 1,060 terawatt-hours, or 96 billion cubic meters, of LNG would be needed during a reference winter to end the season with storage at 30%.

The network remains flexible enough to meet demand under the modeled conditions. Storage supplied about 26% of EU gas consumption during winter 2025–26 and around 30% during winter 2024–25.

EU rules retain a 90% storage-filling target between Oct. 1 and Dec. 1, while allowing flexibility in difficult market conditions. The Netherlands has separately sought to scrap mandatory EU gas-storage targets for 2028, as outlined in earlier coverage of the proposal.