Trump Administration Shifts Iran Strategy Toward Prolonged Economic Campaign

The Trump administration is shifting its Iran strategy toward a prolonged economic campaign after sanctions and port blockades failed to force Tehran to accept U.S. negotiating conditions, raising the prospect of months of additional pressure and higher energy-market risks.

Washington had expected its measures to produce faster results, including an expectation that Iranian airlines would halt international operations by the end of September. That target has not been met, while Iran continues selling crude shipped before the blockade tightened.

The blockade has sharply reduced Iran’s new oil exports, but about 20 million barrels of Iranian crude remain outside the restricted area. Iran is also transporting roughly 250,000 barrels of oil per day overland to buyers outside the blockade.

The next phase of the campaign is expected to focus on Iranian banks, airlines, oil tankers and intermediary networks. The United States is also pressing foreign financial institutions to avoid transactions with Iran or risk secondary sanctions.

Washington is seeking to limit Iran’s use of shadow fleets, ship-to-ship transfers and trade through third countries to bypass sanctions. The administration’s approach is increasingly based on sustained pressure rather than a quick settlement.

Iran has not made concessions on core issues, including its nuclear program. Tehran is demanding that the United States end the port blockade, ease oil sanctions and release frozen assets.

The strategy carries costs for Washington as well, including greater military spending, heightened shipping risks and potential effects on energy markets. The administration is continuing its pressure campaign as it reassesses how long the effort may need to continue.