Russia’s Diesel Plan Could Add $1.25 Billion in Export Revenue

President Donald Trump’s proposed Russian diesel shipments could add up to $1.25 billion in export revenue over three months, but one economist estimates less than $30 million a month would reach Russia’s federal budget.

The estimate applies to an initial phase described as 1.8 million metric tons over three months. Sergey Aleksashenko, senior research fellow and head of economics at the NEST Centre, put potential added export revenue at as much as $1.25 billion, about 1% of Russia’s commodity export revenue for that period. He estimated the federal budget would receive less than $30 million per month, or under 0.07% of monthly federal revenue. These are projections, not realized receipts.

Aleksashenko said the political value may outweigh the fiscal gain, arguing that the decision eases sanctions pressure and weakens unity among Western governments.

Trump announced the proposed supply plan Oct. 9, the same day the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control issued General License 135. The license permits certain transactions involving Russian-origin diesel, including its sale, delivery, offloading and importation into the United States. The license sets no shipment quota and does not require buyers to take delivery. It also bars debits at U.S. financial institutions from accounts held by Russia’s central bank, National Wealth Fund or Finance Ministry.

Russia’s public account of Trump’s call confirmed readiness to supply oil and petroleum products but did not confirm diesel volumes, prices, buyers or delivery dates. Diesel powers freight transport and most farm and construction equipment in the United States.

On Oct. 16, Trump waived multiple provisions, restrictions and duties under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, citing the national interest. The waivers remain in effect until Trump or designated officials decide on further action. The order does not affect measures under earlier executive orders addressing Russia.

Russia had separately exempted diesel exports by direct producers from its temporary fuel-export restrictions beginning Sept. 1. That measure concerns Russia’s domestic export rules; the U.S. license addresses sanctions on transactions involving Russian-origin fuel. The license runs through 12:01 a.m. ET (0401 UTC) Apr. 7, 2027.