France’s Budget Vote Tests Fiscal Plan as Debt Hits 119% of GDP

France’s National Assembly is scheduled to vote Oct. 20 on the revenue section of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s 2027 budget, testing its deficit plan as public debt stood at 119% of GDP at quarter-end.

General-government debt under the Maastricht measure totaled €3.5955 trillion at the end of the second quarter of 2026, up €59.6 billion from the first quarter. The ratio was 119.0% of GDP in the second quarter. The vote adds another step to France’s budget fight over debt costs.

The proposal targets a public deficit of 5.0% of GDP in 2027, compared with the government’s 5.4% projection for 2026. Both figures are forecasts, not final results. The plan also estimates public interest costs of €79.2 billion in 2026 and €91.2 billion in 2027.

France’s 10-year TEC10 benchmark yield was 4.794% on Oct. 16, down from 4.855% on Oct. 12. The index tracks a constant-maturity 10-year rate.

The budget debate follows nationwide protests on Oct. 17 over living costs and school conditions. Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez estimated that 550,000 people joined 110 marches across the country; organizers put turnout at about 800,000. Clashes, fires and looting occurred in several cities, and a fire broke out inside Lyon’s tourist office.

Mujtaba Rahman, Eurasia Group’s managing director for Europe, warned that a failed budget could sharply increase debt-servicing costs. “If his government fails to pass the budget, the cost of servicing French debt may explode,” he wrote. Rahman also raised a hypothetical scenario in which France might seek support from the International Monetary Fund or the European Central Bank if the budget failed.

The Oct. 20 vote covers the bill’s first part, on revenue. Lawmakers are scheduled to vote on the full budget Nov. 17, with a possible move to Nov. 18 if review of the spending section is not finished.