Dutch Central Bank Chief Says 1.5°C Warming Limit Likely to Be Breached

Dutch central bank President Olaf Sleijpen said the 1.5°C warming limit is very likely to be exceeded within a decade, while extreme weather can affect economic activity and central bank mandates.

Sleijpen, president of De Nederlandsche Bank and chair of the Network for Greening the Financial System, spoke at the Green Swan 2026 Conference in Manila on Oct. 19. He said central banks can assess climate-related risks, but governments decide climate policy. “We still have a choice,” Sleijpen said, arguing that government decisions can still limit the damage.

Two 2025 estimates put the remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C at 130 billion and 170 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide from the start of 2026. At the emissions rates used in each calculation, those amounts represented a little over three years and about four years, respectively. The estimates differ and reflect separate calculations.

A compilation of 31 extreme-weather cases across 28 economies covered events from 2015 to 2025. Estimated economic impacts ranged from 0.03% of GDP in the Netherlands’ 2021 flood case to damage equal to 57% of GDP in Jamaica’s 2025 hurricane case. The Jamaica figure measures damage relative to GDP; it does not mean output fell by 57%.

The cases also recorded annual inflation changes ranging from zero to 17 percentage points. Pakistan’s inflation rate climbed 17 percentage points between fiscal 2022 and fiscal 2023, reaching 29.2% after standing at 12.2% the prior year. GDP measures the value of final goods and services produced in an economy over a period.

Global extreme-weather damages exceeded $200 billion in 2025, more than twice the level in the 2000s. At the same conference, European Central Bank Executive Board member Frank Elderson discussed climate risks in economic forecasts.