Tax Researchers Oppose California Prop. 40 in Voluntary Survey

A voluntary survey found that 73 of 105 tax researchers who responded would vote against California’s Proposition 40, a proposed tax on certain high-value assets, but the results do not establish the views of the broader tax-research community.

The 73 opponents represented 69.5% of respondents; 32, or 30.5%, said they would vote for the measure. Jeff Hoopes, a University of North Carolina professor and research director of the UNC Tax Center, had received the responses by 5:17 p.m. ET Oct. 13 (9:17 p.m. UTC).

Hoopes received 105 responses from 486 apparently valid email addresses, a 21.6% response rate. The survey was anonymous and voluntary. Hoopes wrote, “The results therefore describe the people who responded.”

Respondents included 69 economists, 20 accountants, 15 lawyers and one person who identified another field. Among economists, 49 said they would vote against Proposition 40; 17 of the 20 accountants also opposed it. Nine of the 15 lawyers said they would support the measure.

The survey did not identify respondents or limit each recipient to one submission. Hoopes said he could not rule out repeat responses or determine whether people with stronger views were more likely to participate.

Proposition 40 would impose a one-time tax of up to 5% on certain taxpayers whose covered assets are valued above $1 billion. Eligibility is tied to California residency on Jan. 1, 2026. The measure would direct 90% of its revenue to health care and 10% to food assistance or education-related programs.

A separate survey of California adults found that 52% of likely voters supported Proposition 40. It interviewed 1,745 adults, including 1,103 likely voters, from Sept. 4-10. Because the two surveys measured different groups, their results are not directly comparable. California voters will decide on the measure Tuesday, Nov. 3.