EPA Projects Methane Rollback Would Cut 2027 Crude Prices by 11 Cents

The Environmental Protection Agency projects President Donald Trump’s proposed methane rule rollback would trim U.S. crude prices by 11 cents a barrel in 2027, while slightly lifting domestic oil output.

EPA puts the price decline at 0.14% and projects domestic oil production would rise 0.09% that year. The agency’s economic and emissions estimates cover the period from 2027 through 2050.

EPA estimates the changes would save the U.S. economy about $45 billion over that period, with roughly $42 billion coming from lower compliance costs. The agency also expects operators to capture less gas for sale or use, reducing revenue by about $4.2 billion. That loss is already reflected in the $42 billion estimate, so the figures are not additive.

For the same period, the proposal could add 60 million short tons of methane emissions. Under the plan, methane requirements would vary with a well site’s production or whether it uses conventional or unconventional extraction methods. The EPA would also end its Super Emitter Program, which uses approved outside monitors to flag major methane releases.

Operators could burn off gas produced alongside oil. EPA estimates flaring destroys 95% of the methane.

Trump and EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced the proposal Tuesday, Oct. 27, in Lubbock, Texas. Zeldin presented it as a way to lower energy costs. “When owners and operators can produce, America benefits with lower prices,” he said.

CLSA energy research analyst Baden Moore said uncertainty about implementation and whether future administrations will keep the policy could make producers cautious about investment. He said any production benefit may come from slowing declines at existing wells, as lower compliance costs could keep some operations viable. Moore expects the change to affect only a small part of U.S. shale activity. He said many wells would remain commercially viable with oil above $80 a barrel, which CLSA expects, limiting the number that would need regulatory relief.

The proposal now faces public comment and further EPA review before the agency can finalize changes.