Most 2026 Senate Winners Will Serve Through Projected 2032 OASI Reserve Depletion

Most senators elected to full terms Tuesday, Nov. 3, will remain in office when the Social Security retirement and survivors fund is projected to deplete reserves in 2032.

The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund (OASI), which pays retirement and survivors benefits, is projected to deplete its reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032. At that point, continuing income would cover 78% of scheduled benefits. The projection describes a shortfall in funds available for scheduled payments; it does not mean all benefits would stop.

Regular six-year terms run from Jan. 3, 2027, to Jan. 3, 2033. Their terms span the projected depletion date. Florida and Ohio are holding special elections to fill terms that end Jan. 3, 2029; winners would need to win another election to remain in the Senate in 2032.

Candidates have proposed different approaches to Social Security’s finances. Iowa Democratic Senate candidate Josh Turek supports removing the payroll-tax cap. “I really believe that one of the best ways to keep Social Security solvent is we have to remove the cap,” he said.

Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson’s campaign says she would protect benefits and work against waste, fraud and abuse. Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed proposes removing the payroll-tax ceiling and ending taxes on Social Security benefits. Alaska Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola has proposed ending taxes on seniors’ Social Security benefits.

Social Security payroll taxes apply to earnings up to $184,500 in 2026; the ceiling is set at $192,300 for 2027. The proposals are not accompanied by comparable estimates of their effects on trust fund finances.

The 2032 estimate covers OASI alone. The separate Disability Insurance Trust Fund pays disability benefits; combined OASI and Disability Insurance reserves are projected to deplete in the third quarter of 2034, when continuing income would cover 83% of scheduled benefits. These dates describe different fund calculations.

Across the combined funds, 2025 income, including interest, totaled $1.45 trillion against $1.61 trillion in expenditures. Benefit payments reached $1.60 trillion in 2025, and the program had 70 million beneficiaries at year-end.