Goldman Sachs Sees Democrats Above 90% to Win House in Midterms

Goldman Sachs puts Democrats’ chances of taking House control above 90% in the Nov. 3 midterms, setting up potential policy fights over federal spending, tariffs and artificial intelligence oversight. The Senate outlook remains uncertain.

If Democrats win the House, Goldman expects a Dec. 11 spending authorization deadline and the 2027 debt ceiling to become key points in negotiations. Democrats may use the risk of a government shutdown or a debt-limit standoff to press for policy concessions, the bank forecasts.

Goldman sees little chance of major fiscal policy changes over the next two years, even if Democrats win. It expects spending to rise modestly, adding an amount equal to about 0.25% of gross domestic product to 2027 outlays.

Trade policy could also become a point of conflict. Goldman expects President Donald Trump to announce results from 301 investigations after the election and impose new tariffs. The bank projects those measures would outweigh any targeted tariff cuts Democrats pursue, leaving the effective U.S. tariff rate slightly less than two percentage points higher overall.

Goldman expects data center construction to draw less attention after the election and considers a nationwide construction pause unlikely. It sees Congress shifting toward AI oversight, with a possible limited compromise that includes basic federal rules and company self-testing.

If Democrats win either chamber, Goldman expects investigations of large technology companies; states may also pursue stricter AI restrictions. The forecast adds detail to earlier coverage of the midterm policy outlook, which focused on tariffs, data centers and federal funding.