Gasoline Prices Rose 40% as Democrats Won Control of Congress

Democrats captured control of Congress in Tuesday’s midterm elections as gasoline prices climbed 40% during the Iran war, putting pressure on household budgets and Republican candidates.

The conflict began in February and had no clear end date. It had killed more than 20 U.S. service members and cost taxpayers more than $47 billion. Higher fuel prices also raised costs for freight and fertilizer.

Trump’s advisers warned in the spring that the war could hurt Republicans in the midterms. In March, administration officials told oil executives the fighting would end in April, while political advisers hoped it would be over by summer. The conflict continued into the election, and lawmakers pressed the White House for an exit plan. Trump had campaigned in 2024 on ending overseas wars, and the Iran conflict disappointed some of his loyal supporters.

An August internal poll found voters overwhelmingly blamed Trump, rather than Democrats, for inflation. Gasoline prices jumped 16 cents in one week in September, and diesel later reached a record high. Democrats then shifted campaign resources to districts once considered Republican strongholds, including open seats in Florida and Texas that Trump had won by more than 10 percentage points in 2024.

Immigration enforcement was another source of voter backlash. Aggressive enforcement drove illegal border crossings to their lowest levels in decades, but large operations in cities sparked confrontations. Democrats led by 40 percentage points in counties where Latinos made up more than 80% of the population.

Trump backed candidates he considered loyal in Senate contests in Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Texas, over rivals viewed as more electable. Democrats won all four races. Vice President JD Vance also blamed the Iran war for Republican losses after the vote.