AARP Model Sees Social Security Paying Full Benefits Until 2059

Social Security could keep paying full scheduled benefits until 2059 if taxable payroll had stayed at 41% of gross domestic product from the early 1980s through 2034, the AARP Public Policy Institute estimates.

The model puts taxable payroll at 41% of GDP over that period. In recent decades, the share fell from about 41% in the early 1980s to 34% in 2025. Under the scenario, program revenue from 1984 to 2034 would have been $10.8 trillion higher. The institute published the estimate Tuesday, Nov. 10.

Taxable payroll is the portion of earnings subject to Social Security payroll taxes, measured here against the size of the economy. The scenario holds that share steady; it is not a forecast that tax revenue will automatically keep pace with GDP. It is a counterfactual, does not change current law and does not replace the trustees’ projection.

The 2026 trustees’ projection puts reserve depletion for the combined Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) funds in the third quarter of 2034. At that point, continuing income would cover 83% of scheduled benefits. Because the funds are legally separate, this combined calculation is hypothetical and would require a change in law.

The OASI-only projection puts reserve depletion in the fourth quarter of 2032, with continuing income covering 78% of scheduled benefits. OASI pays retirement and survivor benefits; DI covers disability benefits. Reserve depletion does not mean income stops, but continuing income would fall short of scheduled payments under those projections.

In 2026, Social Security payroll taxes apply to earnings up to $184,500. Employees and employers each pay 6.2% on covered earnings. AARP has identified raising or eliminating the taxable earnings cap and adding targeted contributions on certain capital or business income as policy options.

“Social Security’s finances have weakened in large part because the economy has changed while its revenue system has not,” said Richard Johnson, vice president of financial security at the AARP Public Policy Institute. The model focuses on how a smaller share of the economy subject to the payroll tax affects the program’s revenue base.