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Hinton Relays Christiano's 18-Month AI Timeline to EU Leaders

Christiano's estimate is shorter than Hinton's earlier 10-year horizon. EU leaders also discussed the bloc's AI Act.

An hourglass rests on a table in an empty summit chamber / TokenPost.ai
An hourglass rests on a table in an empty summit chamber / TokenPost.ai

European Union leaders held their first summit agenda item dedicated to AI at a Dublin summit Friday, Nov. 13, where Nobel laureate Geoffrey Hinton relayed Paul Christiano's estimate that AI could surpass human intelligence within 18 months.

Christiano, an AI safety researcher, put forward the 18-month timeline. Hinton had previously estimated that AI might become smarter than people within 10 years.

In September, OpenAI added Christiano to its board.

The leaders discussed the EU AI Act, which sets a framework for AI deployment while seeking to balance safety and innovation. European Council President António Costa said stronger governance was needed to manage AI risks. The discussions also raised the possibility of Europe helping shape international AI standards.

At the Hinton Lectures, held Nov. 9-11, Christiano warned of a possible AI takeover within three years.

Riza Dagoc

Riza Dagoc reports on regulation, investing and the digital-asset business for TokenPost. Send corrections or tips to info@tokenpost.com.

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