AI Models Estimate Bitcoin’s 20-Year Cryptographic-Break Risk at 34%-76%

Four artificial intelligence models placed Bitcoin’s 20-year risk of a practical cryptographic break between 34% and 76%, highlighting uncertainty about future quantum computers and the need to plan for cryptographic migration.

The scenario analysis examined Bitcoin’s current ECDSA and Schnorr signature systems over the secp256k1 elliptic curve across two-, five-, 10- and 20-year horizons. ChatGPT-6 Astra estimated approximately 76%, Grok Expert 60%, Claude Opus 5.5 about 66% and Deepseek Deepthink 34%.

The models’ two-year estimates ranged from 0% to 2%. They assigned most of the longer-term risk to quantum computing, while estimates for classical mathematics or artificial intelligence-assisted cryptanalysis ranged from 2% to 10%.

The percentages are prompt-generated scenario outputs rather than measured probabilities, evidence of an active attack or the results of a consensus survey. The wide spread reflects uncertainty over both the timing and capabilities of future quantum computers.

Bitcoin (BTC) uses elliptic-curve signatures to authorize transactions. A sufficiently capable quantum computer could use Shor’s algorithm to derive private keys from exposed public keys by solving the mathematical problem underlying the cryptography.

The timing of a quantum computer capable of threatening current encryption remains unknown. Such a system would require many thousands of qubits, while current qubits remain vulnerable to errors.

Three post-quantum cryptography standards—ML-KEM, ML-DSA and SLH-DSA—were released in August 2024. Quantum-vulnerable algorithms are scheduled to be deprecated and ultimately removed from applicable standards by 2035. Replacing vulnerable cryptography can take 10 to 20 years.

“We encourage organizations to begin their transition to these standards immediately to ensure their data remains secure in the quantum era,” said Dustin Moody, a National Institute of Standards and Technology mathematician.

A Sept. 8 IonQ resource-estimation study projected that a fault-tolerant quantum computer with 20,000 physical qubits could break secp256k1 in 25.7 days. The study described the projection as an architectural estimate rather than an attack on Bitcoin or another live digital-asset platform.

“No deployed digital asset nor crypto platform was affected during IonQ’s research,” said IonQ president of quantum computing Chris Ballance.

The estimates add to discussion about when Bitcoin and other blockchain networks should begin adapting their security systems. The issue is separate from immediate software and implementation weaknesses; earlier coverage examined AI-assisted flaw discovery in crypto software.