AI Demand Boosts Global Trade as IMF Warns Gains Are Uneven

Artificial-intelligence demand helped accelerate global trade from 2023 through 2025, benefiting economies tied to technology supply chains while increasing exposure to financial and cybersecurity risks.

AI-related trade expanded faster than overall trade during the period. The products involved include semiconductors, servers and other computing equipment used to build artificial-intelligence infrastructure.

China, India and other Asian economies benefited from stronger cross-border demand for those goods. The surge benefited economies integrated into technology supply chains and supported growth in technology-linked sectors.

The gains remain concentrated, creating vulnerabilities if investment does not produce the expected productivity improvements. A reassessment of AI-related profitability could trigger an unwind of the boom.

“It’s basically an unwind of this boom that we are seeing,” Silvana Tenreyro said while discussing that risk. She also described the outlook as “highly uneven.”

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) identified high debt, a potential correction in technology valuations and cybersecurity threats as additional pressures on growth and financial stability. More sophisticated cyberattacks could increase the risks surrounding the expansion, while heavy dependence on AI-related investment could make the global economy more sensitive to a slowdown in the sector.

The IMF released its October 2026 World Economic Outlook on Oct. 12 at 10 p.m. ET (0200 UTC on Oct. 13), following the scheduled 9 a.m. release time in Bangkok. The IMF’s annual meetings are running in Bangkok from Oct. 12–18.

The outlook follows the IMF’s higher 2026 global growth forecast, which put expansion at 3.1% as AI investment helped offset the Middle East war and trade tensions.