Anthropic Estimates Robots Can Perform 74% of U.S. Physical Tasks

Anthropic estimates that current robots could handle 74% of U.S. physical work tasks in some settings, while only 0.3% of job tasks are cost-competitive with human labor today.

The Sept. 30 analysis estimates that physical tasks make up 46% of working hours. Tasks robots could perform in some circumstances therefore account for 34% of all work time. Much of this work is feasible only in purpose-built or structured settings.

The calculation uses Claude to assess task requirements and estimate time spent on them, then weights occupations using 2025 U.S. employment figures.

If robot prices decline at the pace estimated from past trends—about 3% a year—the cost-competitive share of tasks would take roughly 40 years to reach 10%. Robot costs would need to fall about 70% to reach that level.

Exposure differs by occupation. Nine of the 10 most exposed occupations are vehicle operators. Taxi driving tops the occupation rankings with an exposure score of 2.2 out of 3. Driving and warehouse work rank as more exposed to current robots, while nursing and general repair work rank lower.

The estimates describe task capabilities and costs; they do not establish that jobs will be eliminated. Robot capabilities, workplace conditions, human preferences and regulations can also affect adoption.