AI Revenue Could Top Depreciation Around 2027, but Owners Face an $8.5 Trillion Hurdle

AI-related revenue across 15 platforms and service providers is projected to exceed annual infrastructure depreciation around 2027, while data-center owners face a much higher revenue hurdle.

The group’s AI-related revenue is projected to reach about $1.5 trillion in 2030. That annual estimate does not establish whether data-center owners can cover capital spending and financing costs or earn a return on their investments.

Data-center owners need $8.5 trillion in cumulative revenue through 2030 to cover capital spending and financing costs and achieve a 12% return on invested capital. Separately, revenue attributable to enterprise and consumer AI businesses is projected to total $3.6 trillion over the period. That estimate concerns AI businesses, not revenue attributed to data centers.

The figures measure different things: one covers annual AI-related revenue across 15 platforms and service providers, while the $8.5 trillion figure is a cumulative revenue requirement for data-center owners. Revenue exceeding depreciation alone would not meet that broader threshold.

AI infrastructure investment may outpace revenue growth, and computing assets could become obsolete before generating sufficient returns. More than $3.5 trillion in AI infrastructure spending could face impairment by 2030. Cost pressure and limited business differentiation could leave more than 80% of newer cloud providers no longer operating independently by then.