U.S. Fossil Power Capacity Plans Rise 45% for 2026–2030

U.S. power developers expect about 68 gigawatts of fossil-fuel capacity to enter service from 2026 through 2030, up 45% as electricity demand rises and natural gas dominates the plans.

Nearly all of that capacity is natural gas. At the end of 2025, developers expected 47 gigawatts of fossil-fuel capacity to begin operating during the same five-year period. Both figures reflect planned service dates, not plants that have been completed.

In the second quarter of 2026, fossil fuels accounted for about 30% of a roughly 285-gigawatt U.S. development pipeline. Their share of capacity that began operating in 2024 was 5%. If current schedules hold, fossil plants could account for about 70% of new capacity entering service in 2030.

U.S. electricity use rose 4% in the third quarter of 2026 from a year earlier. Residential consumption increased 6%, while commercial consumption rose 5%. The commercial category includes data centers, whose future power needs remain uncertain.

Commercial electricity demand is projected to grow 2.8% in 2027, and industrial demand is projected to rise 2.7%. Those forecasts help explain the scale of the development pipeline, but they do not establish how many proposed plants will ultimately be built.

“Filling America’s power pipeline with more fossil fuels could lock in higher costs, volatile fuel prices, and more pollution for decades,” said David Villagrana, lead counsel for clean energy tax solutions at the Environmental Defense Fund.

Midpoint estimates for 2026 put the lifetime cost of generating electricity at $69 per megawatt-hour for utility-scale solar, $68 for onshore wind and $90 for combined-cycle natural gas. The estimates exclude some system costs, including transmission and distribution, and are not forecasts of household electricity bills.

The planned gas additions face practical obstacles. Gas-turbine shortages could slow construction, while changes in expected data-center demand could affect whether projects proceed. The capacity totals describe generators’ maximum rated output; they do not show how much electricity the plants would produce.