Texas Data Center Demand Could Lift Power-Sector NOx 136% by 2031

Texas power-sector nitrogen oxides (NOx) could rise 136% by 2031 in a grid-mix scenario as data centers add electricity demand, while a renewables-heavy option substantially reduces projected pollution.

In the grid-mix case, 2031 emissions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and carbon dioxide (CO2) are each projected to be about 90% above 2025 levels. NOx would approach its 2004 level, and PM2.5 would reach about its 2006 level.

The high-demand case powered by on-site natural-gas engines has a larger NOx impact: annual emissions from the engines would exceed those from all Texas sources today. Pollution controls would lower engine emissions, but controlled engines would still produce about two to three times as much NOx as grid power.

A different modeled setup supplies one-third of data-center electricity from the grid and the rest from on-site solar and wind. It cuts projected NOx and CO2 by roughly two-thirds compared with a grid-only setup.

Projected power-sector CO2 emissions in 2031 range from about 251 million metric tons under the most conservative demand forecast to roughly 900 million metric tons under the highest. The lower estimate is 38% above 2025 levels, while the upper estimate exceeds Texas’ total emissions from all sources in 2024.

“Power-supply choice is what drives the outcome,” said Carlos Gamarra, vice president for energy, air and IT at the Houston Advanced Research Center.

The model treats data centers as operating continuously at 80% capacity. Within each scenario, it applies the same power arrangement to all new data-center demand. Actual projects may combine supply sources, and delayed or canceled projects could lower the projected emissions.

The figures are statewide annual emissions estimates. They do not give pollution concentrations for specific communities or estimate health effects. Texas’ power-generation and transportation sectors have reduced emissions over the past two decades through pollution controls, fuel switching, vehicle standards and coal-plant retirements.