U.S. AI Nobel Discovery Expectations Rise to 44%; Anthropic Staff Respondents at 91%

A September survey found that 44% of U.S. adults expected artificial intelligence (AI) to be able to make a scientific discovery worthy of a Nobel Prize by 2030, up from 39% in August. In Anthropic’s August employee poll, 91% of staff respondents expected the same outcome.

The U.S. survey included 7,613 adults surveyed Sept. 17-24. An earlier survey of 10,980 U.S. adults ran Aug. 11-23, with responses weighted to represent the adult population; half of those respondents were asked about AI’s potential by 2030.

Anthropic’s employee poll ran Aug. 9-12 and received 1,334 unweighted responses. The employee and public expectations were also included in earlier coverage of Anthropic workers’ expectations for AI.

These percentages describe what respondents expect. They are not estimates of the probability that AI will make such a discovery, measurements of AI’s current capabilities or an announced Anthropic target.