Coinbase CEO Sees Quantum as a Greater Long-Term Crypto Risk Than AI

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said quantum computing presents a greater long-term risk to crypto security than artificial intelligence and described it as a threat to prepare for.

At Coinbase’s third-quarter earnings Q&A on Oct. 29, Armstrong said he was “not too worried” about AI creating a risk to elliptic-curve cryptography. He called quantum computing “the more serious one to look at here and to get ready for this.” The comparison reflects Armstrong’s assessment of the long-term security challenge; it does not establish when a quantum computer could threaten crypto signatures.

Armstrong said Coinbase has begun work to upgrade its custody systems for post-quantum security. He said blockchains themselves would also need upgrades. Coinbase has previously outlined its post-quantum custody plan.

The risk concerns digital signatures and wallet keys that authorize spending, rather than encryption of transaction data. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could derive a private key from an exposed public key, potentially putting funds controlled by that key at risk. When a computer capable of doing so might be available remains uncertain.

A Bitcoin upgrade would involve choices beyond replacing a signature method. Potential approaches include flexible signature designs, protections introduced in stages, and plans for coins that cannot or will not move. Coinbase has described its technical views as input to an open discussion and the migration as a complex, multiyear process.

The federal transition timetable is separate from Bitcoin’s. Executive Order 14412 sets 2030 migration deadlines for key establishment and 2031 deadlines for digital signatures on specified federal systems. The broader federal migration has a 2035 target; those milestones do not set a Bitcoin upgrade schedule.

Armstrong said he hopes the Bitcoin community will begin converging on proposals over “the coming couple of quarters.” He did not name a preferred approach or announce a migration date.