Jeff Pu Projects SpaceX Could Reach 5 GW of Orbital Computing Capacity by 2028

GF Securities director Jeff Pu projects SpaceX could reach five gigawatts of orbital computing capacity by 2028 using about 10,000 Kessel AI racks, an estimate that exceeds a separate projection for the first 6,000 racks.

The figures are analyst estimates. SpaceX and NVIDIA have not publicly disclosed a capacity target for the program. Pu describes Kessel as a compact, wide-format system based on NVIDIA's NVL72 design, with 72 Rubin GPUs in each rack.

Pu's specifications also include a single-loop liquid-cooling system that would move heat to external panels. Because space lacks air convection, the heat would need to escape through radiation. His component plan calls for a roughly 60-layer midplane, Amphenol Paladin connectors and a mix of PTFE and M9 copper-clad laminate; the midplane is estimated to cost more than $20,000.

Pu's supplier list names 鴻海 (2317) as the sole assembler and 奇鋐 (3017) for cold plates. 台虹 (8039) and 台光電 (2383) are named for PTFE and M9 laminate, while 富世達 (6805) is listed for liquid-cooling quick-disconnect components. 進能服 (6538) and 元晶 (6443) are named for solar equipment.

Pu expects the supply chain to ramp from the second half of 2027 into 2028. He also expects four Starship launch pads to be operating by the end of 2027 and a launch pace of twice weekly in the second half of that year.

The first 6,000 racks are projected to provide 1.05 gigawatts, with new-product introduction in May 2027 and production completion expected in December 2027.

The two rack-based capacity estimates differ in scale. They also measure something different from Elon Musk's comparison of monthly orbital and ground-computing additions, which concerns the pace of new capacity rather than total orbital capacity.