SemiAnalysis Founder Warns Nvidia Roadmap Could Slow After Jensen Huang’s Resignation

SemiAnalysis founder Dylan Patel warned that Nvidia’s chip schedule could slow following the resignation of former Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, citing Huang’s role in resolving product and software problems.

Patel said SemiAnalysis had repeatedly written directly to Huang about open-source software issues. He described those messages as the only way he saw to get certain problems fixed and said team-to-team communication was ineffective for them.

Patel pointed to Nvidia’s Volta architecture as an example of Huang’s involvement in product decisions. He said Tensor Cores had not been added to Volta three months before tape-out, when Huang decided they should be included. The team estimated the work would take six months, Patel said.

Patel’s concern about Rubin was conditional: If manufacturing problems arise after Huang resigned as CEO, he said, resolving them could take longer because they might be handled by a committee instead of escalated. He also said Rubin could be delayed and its yield ramp could move more slowly.

Patel separated the risks for later chips. He said Rubin Ultra could be delayed or might not be produced, while the later Feynman architecture could be delayed or have less aggressive specifications. He also said suppliers gave Nvidia 70% of capacity because Huang personally asked for it.

Jordan Nanos said Nvidia had already arranged roadmaps and supply-chain plans for Rubin and Rubin Ultra, allowing the company to work toward fulfilling customer orders in the near term. Nvidia CFO Colette Kress is serving as interim CEO after Huang resigned as CEO and left the board.

Nanos identified senior employee retention as a longer-term test. He said venture capitalists were offering large sums to encourage Nvidia employees to start chip companies. A wave of senior departures within a year would concern him, Nanos said, while a team that remained aligned would give him more confidence.