Tesla-SpaceX Merger Scenario Puts SpaceX Holders at 52% Ownership

Royal Bank of Canada modeled a possible Tesla-SpaceX merger that would leave existing SpaceX shareholders with about 52% of the combined company, putting ownership and financing at the center of the debate.

The model also uses a hypothetical transaction price of $480 per share. Neither figure is an agreed deal term. No merger plan had been formally announced as of Oct. 20.

SpaceX absorbed xAI in February and is building out AI-computing infrastructure alongside its rocket launch and Starlink satellite internet operations. Tesla is pursuing autonomous driving, robotaxis and humanoid robots. The two companies are also working together on the Terafab chip project.

Financing is a key question for any combination. SpaceX had $7.8 billion in second-quarter revenue, a $541 million net loss and $15.8 billion in AI capital expenditures. Morgan Stanley projects that SpaceX may need to issue about $80 billion in debt in 2027.

Earlier coverage of a possible Tesla-SpaceX combination examined shareholder dilution and the potential use of Tesla cash.

Third-quarter results from both companies are expected this week. They may bring SpaceX’s financing pressure, Starlink’s profitability and the feasibility of a combination into sharper focus.