HSBC CEO Says Hormuz May Become Redundant in About Five Years

HSBC Group CEO Georges Elhedery said new Gulf export routes may make the Strait of Hormuz redundant in about five years, a forecast that leaves its liquefied natural gas traffic unresolved.

“But Hormuz, probably in five years’ time, may become redundant,” Elhedery said at the HSBC Future Forum in Dubai on Oct. 20. His five-year horizon is a forecast, not a completion date for a specific export project.

The strait connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman. About 25% of oil shipped by sea worldwide passed through it in 2025. Saudi Arabian and United Arab Emirates crude pipelines have been estimated to offer 3.5 million to 5.5 million barrels a day of available bypass capacity.

Oil and petroleum liquids moving through Hormuz averaged 21.6 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared with 4.9 million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2026. Those figures measure traffic through the strait, while the pipeline estimate concerns crude bypass capacity.

Saudi Aramco’s East-West Pipeline had a maximum capacity of 7 million barrels a day in the first quarter of 2026. About 2 million barrels a day of its capacity serves refineries on Saudi Arabia’s west coast.

More than 110 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas crossed Hormuz in 2025, nearly one-fifth of global LNG trade. Those volumes have no alternative route to market. Disruption to the passage has also constrained QatarEnergy’s LNG deliveries to Europe and Asia.

Aramco is studying additional crude export routes and expanding overseas storage, steps it outlined on Oct. 12. The LNG route problem remains unresolved in Elhedery’s forecast.