Upstart Cuts 2026 Revenue Outlook to $1.35 Billion as Its Credit-Risk Measure Rises

Upstart Holdings, Inc. cut its 2026 revenue forecast to about $1.35 billion on Nov. 3 as weaker income from loans and investments it holds outweighed a higher fee revenue projection.

The company previously expected about $1.4 billion in revenue for the year. It also lowered its adjusted EBITDA target to approximately $260 million from $294 million, reducing the projected margin to 19% from 21%. Adjusted EBITDA excludes interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization and includes other adjustments.

Upstart raised its fee revenue forecast to about $1.32 billion from $1.3 billion. The $20 million increase in that projection contrasts with a $50 million reduction in the total revenue outlook. Weaker income from assets on Upstart’s balance sheet weighed on the overall forecast.

Upstart’s own credit-risk measure, the Upstart Macro Index (UMI), stood at 1.53 on Nov. 3, compared with 1.49 on Oct. 5. The index estimates how economic conditions affect credit losses on loans made through Upstart’s platform; it does not measure the overall economy. The revised forecast assumes UMI stays at or below 1.55 through year-end and that the two-year Treasury yield does not change materially. The 1.55 figure is a forecast assumption, rather than an observed reading.

For the three months ended Sept. 30, Upstart generated about $371 million in revenue, up 34% from a year earlier. Net income was $36.6 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $89.3 million. Loan originations increased 44% to $4.1 billion.

Upstart still aims to open Upstart Bank, National Association, in early 2027. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency granted preliminary conditional approval on July 23. The proposed bank must satisfy preopening requirements before it can receive final authorization to operate.

Upstart plans to move most loans it currently holds to the bank and fund them with deposits. The company expects that move to release cash without requiring additional equity capital, though those financial effects remain projections. Its next step is to meet the requirements for final authorization ahead of the targeted opening.