Fed Faces Data Gap as Shutdown Halts October CPI, Raising Uncertainty Ahead of December Meeting

The Federal Reserve is heading into its December policy meeting with a significant information gap after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) canceled the release of October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). The report, originally scheduled for November 7, was scrapped because the government shutdown prevented BLS field staff from completing essential data collection. Since CPI relies on in-person visits, phone outreach, online tracking, and household surveys, the agency now says it cannot retroactively gather the missing information.

The disruption doesn’t end there. The BLS has also delayed the November CPI release, moving it from December 10 to December 18—eight days after the Fed is set to announce its next policy decision. That means the central bank will head into a crucial meeting missing two months of one of its most important inflation indicators. With inflation still central to monetary policy, this data outage forces the Fed to rely more heavily on alternative sources such as labor market statistics, consumer spending patterns, and other available economic indicators.

Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s late-October meeting already highlighted concerns about gaps in key data streams following the shutdown. Although the committee cut interest rates by a quarter point at that meeting, members acknowledged that missing information makes it harder to assess real-time economic conditions. Losing the October CPI further complicates the picture, removing a widely watched measure of price movements across the economy.

Fed officials are signaling a cautious stance as they navigate the uncertainty. Chair Jerome Powell compared the situation to “driving through fog,” stressing the need to slow down and carefully analyze every piece of data available. New York Fed President John Williams indicated there may still be room for near-term easing, keeping the possibility of another rate cut open. Meanwhile, Governor Christopher Waller emphasized that although the shutdown created gaps, policymakers still have enough information to make informed decisions.

This temporary data blackout underscores how government shutdowns can disrupt critical economic reporting at pivotal moments for monetary policy.