ARK Ties Tesla’s 2031 Case to a $225 Billion AI Spending Assumption

ARK Invest’s Oct. 19 valuation model puts Tesla shares at about $4,400 in 2031 and assigns roughly 80% of the automaker’s projected enterprise value to robotaxis. The estimate also depends on an assumption that cumulative AI infrastructure spending reaches about $225 billion by the end of 2031. That is a modeling input, not a Tesla spending commitment.

ARK’s model starts from about $7 billion in cumulative AI infrastructure spending as of December 2025. Separate Terafab figures include a first phase valued at more than $16.8 billion and ARK’s estimate of $3 billion for Tesla’s initial research arm. Those figures do not establish Tesla’s share of the first phase or explain how the project relates to the model’s $225 billion assumption.

In the base case, the model projects 8.1 million robotaxis and $753 billion in ride-hailing net revenue in 2031. It also assumes 1 million cumulative Optimus robot sales to outside customers, generating $212 billion in revenue. Total revenue reaches a projected $1.449 trillion that year. The $4,400 share estimate also features in earlier coverage of ARK’s Tesla valuation, which focused on the projected $17.5 trillion market capitalization.

The model’s $3,300 and $5,000 share estimates are the 25th and 75th percentiles of a simulation using 32 inputs. They mark positions within the simulated outcomes, rather than fixed lower and upper limits. ARK’s model also includes dilution from stock-based compensation it assumes will vest during the forecast period.

Tesla’s third-quarter results offer a current operating baseline. For the quarter ended Sept. 30, Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles and recorded $28.046 billion in revenue, $4.732 billion in capital expenditures and $1.531 billion in free cash flow. Cybercab rides began in Austin on Sept. 3, and nearly 2 million cumulative unsupervised robotaxi miles had been logged by quarter-end.

ARK identifies slower robotaxi deployment, including regulatory delays, as a risk. It describes the estimates as hypothetical and speculative, with outcomes subject to significant uncertainty.