Prediction Market Prices Lutnick's Jan. 1 Exit Odds at 51.5%

A prediction-market contract on Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick leaving by Jan. 1, 2027, was priced at 51.5%. A separate contract tied to a Dec. 1 departure deadline was priced at 20.5%; the contracts have different deadlines and describe separate outcomes.

The market prices come amid scrutiny of U.S. export controls on advanced chips. Lutnick held back proposed restrictions on Nvidia chip sales to China after Oval Office discussions.

The Entity List is a Commerce Department trade blacklist that can sharply limit a foreign company’s access to sensitive U.S. technology.