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Prediction Markets
183 TokenPost stories are tagged Prediction Markets. The newest appear first.
Latest Prediction Markets stories
- Kalshi Lists Taiwan Election Markets as Its Rules Bar Local Trading
The listings cover a Taipei mayoral race and which party will win the most mayoral and magistrate contests on Nov. 28, 2026.
· Regulation
- Mike Selig Reaffirms CFTC’s Exclusive Jurisdiction Over Prediction Markets
Selig cited cross-state fraud and manipulation as the rationale, while separately describing exchanges as businesses that match customer quotes nationwide.
· Regulation
- Kalshi Prices Tesla-SpaceX Merger Odds at 56% Before March 2027
The contract rose from 29% as Barclays analyst Dan Levy outlined a possible AI-focused combination. April and May deadlines also reached similar odds.
· Investing
- XRP's year-end $2 odds jump 16 points in a day to 34%
XRP’s year-end odds of reaching $2 surged 16 percentage points to 34%. Bitcoin’s probability of topping $100,000 by year-end stood at 25%.
· Investing
- Prediction Markets Lead Crypto Sectors With a 9.68% Gain in Snapshot
Tokenized Private Credit fell 0.53% to $24.65 billion, the steepest decline among sectors with market capitalizations of at least $2 billion.
· Investing
- Meme Coin Projects Peak an Average of 17.2 Days After Trading; 3% Reclaim Their Highs
A quarter of projects peaked within 1.6 days of first trading, while the median time from a peak to a 95% decline was 370 days.
· Investing
- Kalshi Adds Address-Based Ballot Search for 2026 Midterms
My Ballot combines district-level ballot information with Kalshi’s election markets. More than 80% of Midterms Hub visitors use it to follow political information rather than trade.
· Business
- CoreWeave Bankruptcy Odds Stand at 28.5% for Jan. 1, 2030
The listed odds were 14.5% for Jan. 1, 2028, and 22.5% for Jan. 1, 2029.
· Investing
- Saudi Airspace Closure Contracts Price Odds at 5.5% for November and 16.5% for January
Saudi authorities had not confirmed the reports, while contracts priced a closure at 5.5% for Nov. 1 and 16.5% for Jan. 1.
· Investing
- BetMGM CEO Says CFTC Actions Leave Prediction Markets at Legal Risk
Greenblatt expects the Supreme Court to favor states, but the justices have not agreed to hear New Jersey’s case against Kalshi.
· Regulation
- Bitcoin Briefly Falls Below $80,000; Christmas $100,000 Odds Drop to 9.7%
A selloff in U.S. AI stocks weighed on risk assets as speculative markets shifted toward a defensive stance.
· Investing
- Saudi Coalition Reports 20 Houthi Attacks on Riyadh Airport
Contracts on a possible Saudi airspace closure stood at 5.5% for Nov. 1 and 16.5% for Jan. 1, 2027.
· Investing
- Polymarket Puts U.S. Invasion of Iran Odds at 16.5% Under Narrow Contract Rules
A “Yes” requires a U.S. offensive aimed at taking control of part of Iran by the end of 2026; a ceasefire breakdown alone does not qualify.
· Investing
- Crypto.com Exchange Announces Predict Pro Event Markets for U.S. Users
The product covers sports, elections, cryptocurrency prices and other real-world events, with a live order book and multiple order types.
· Business
- Taiwan Restricts Local Access to Coinbase and Kalshi Websites
A New Taipei District Court authorized Taiwan’s communications regulator and domain-registration body to limit access. Polymarket had already been blocked.
· Regulation
- Kalshi CEO Says Santos Contract Drew 100 Whistleblower Complaints Within Minutes
He pointed to former Rep. George Santos’ State of the Union contract; the CFTC found Santos traded it while making misleading statements about his plans.
· Regulation
- XRP’s year-end $2 odds plunge 14 points in a day to 20%
XRP’s probability of reaching $2 by year-end dropped 14 percentage points to 20%. Bitcoin’s year-end odds of hitting $100,000 fell to 27%, while Ethereum’s $3,500 odds declined to 15%.
· Investing
- Hyperliquid’s Year-End $100 Contract Odds Fall to 47% in One Week
The YES probability was 72% a week earlier. Hyperliquid restricts U.S. users and does not hold a CFTC exchange license.
· Investing
- Prediction Markets Price October Fed Hike Odds Near One in Four
Early Oct. 15 contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket US favored a hold at the Oct. 27–28 meeting. The September consumer price index (CPI) report, released Oct. 14, showed inflation rising 0.6% from August.
· Investing
- Polymarket CEO Criticizes Crypto’s 100-Fold Token Bets
Coplan said event contracts have no exponential upside. Winning Polymarket shares pay $1 at resolution.
· Investing
- Gen.G Leads Predict.fun’s Worlds 2026 Winner Market at 35%
Hanwha Life Esports was next at 19%. The tournament was scheduled to begin at 2 p.m. ET (18:00 UTC) Oct. 15.
· Investing
- CFTC Rule, Proposal and Court Rulings Leave State Fight Over Sports Contracts Open
An interim rule would exclude casino-style products from the swap definition, while a separate proposal would add event contracts. Federal appeals courts have reached different conclusions in disputes over state enfor…
· Regulation
- Saudi Coalition Intercepts Drone in Eastern Saudi Arabia
Saudi authorities reported no casualties or damage. Prediction-market odds for a Houthi entry into Aden by Oct. 31 fell to 4% from 6% the previous day.
· Investing
- Coinbase Visitors in Taiwan See Notice Citing Court Order
The notice referenced Taiwan’s election law and a New Taipei District Court case. The order’s scope was not established.
· Regulation
- Kalshi CEO Says State Sports Betting Rules Could Push Markets Offshore
Appeals courts have reached different conclusions on state authority, while the Sixth Circuit allowed Ohio and Tennessee to enforce gambling laws against Kalshi.
· Regulation
- Kalshi Co-Founder Says Flat Reporting Structure Speeds Decisions
Luana Lopes Lara said employees report directly to her or one step away, and the company has no “heads of” or vice presidents.
· People
- OffMarket Offers Private Trading on Polymarket’s International Markets
Users can sign in with Google or a wallet and deposit USDC. Trading through OffMarket is currently unavailable from the United States.
· Investing
- Polymarket Prices Nvidia’s October Stock Thresholds From $208 to $272
The contracts track whether Nvidia shares reach specified price levels by Oct. 31, 2026. Displayed odds are a snapshot and may change.
· Investing
- Kalshi Seeks Full Sixth Circuit Review of Ohio and Tennessee Rulings
The company’s Oct. 13 request challenges a panel’s decisions on preliminary injunctions in both state disputes.
· Regulation
- Polymarket Puts Fable 5.2 or Later Release Odds at 70% by Oct. 17
The market’s probability rose 36% in 24 hours. A public beta or a waitlist open to the public meets its release criteria.
· Investing
- Trader Adds $4,381 in Bitcoin Prediction-Market Bets on Year-End Declines
The trader also held a 26.97 BTC short on Hyperliquid with a notional value of about $2.2528 million and an unrealized loss of roughly $365,200.
· Investing
- Polymarket Lists Market on Predict.fun Token’s Post-Launch Valuation
The contract asks whether the token’s fully diluted valuation will exceed $300 million one day after launch.
· Investing
- Yield Farming Leads Crypto Sectors With 13.83% Gain in 24 Hours
Prediction Markets fell 8.96% as of 2:24 a.m. ET Oct. 14. Figures cover sectors with market capitalizations of at least $2 billion.
· Investing
- Bitcoin Prediction Markets Put October Odds of Touching $80,000 Above $92,500
Polymarket prices a 54% chance of Bitcoin touching $80,000 during October, while Kalshi shows 55% odds of trading below that level.
· Investing
- Kalshi Records $3.9 Billion in Trading Activity as Parlays Drive Volume
The total counts contracts at their $1 notional payout value, rather than traders’ purchase prices or platform revenue. Crypto, commodities and financial markets generated $20.4 million in fees in the seven days throu…
· Investing
- Prediction-Market Jurisdiction Dispute Could Reach Supreme Court
The dispute concerns whether federal regulators or states and tribes have authority over prediction markets.
· Regulation
- CFTC Sets Separate Paths for Crypto Trading and Sports Contracts
The agency is seeking comments on a crypto-market framework while treating event contracts as swaps and excluding sportsbook wagers from the definition.
· Regulation
- Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 Records $317 Million in Five-Month Volume
The outcome-market platform generated $51 million in September, while soccer World Cup contracts represented 28% of cumulative volume.
· Investing
- CFTC Filing Index Lists KalshiEX Program Termination Notice
The index entry does not establish the program’s original terms, reason for termination or effective date.
· Regulation
- Prediction Markets Surge 7,267.37% as Crypto Sectors Diverge
Prediction Markets reached a $7.12 billion market capitalization, while Data Availability fell 9.55% in the 24-hour snapshot recorded Oct. 12.
· Investing