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Prediction Markets
505 TokenPost stories are tagged Prediction Markets. The newest appear first.
Latest Prediction Markets stories
- Bitcoin Odds of Touching $55,000 This Year Rise to 35%
The odds of reaching $60,000 stood at 61%, compared with 7% for $90,000.
· Investing
- Louisiana AG Calls Prediction Market Remarks ‘Flatly False’
Her Nov. 14 post did not name the person or specify the statement she disputed. The United States and CFTC filed suit over Louisiana’s event-contract restrictions a day earlier.
· Regulation
- Polymarket Prices Bitcoin’s November $62,500 Touch at 89%
The contract’s probability rose 55% in 24 hours and is settled using Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle highs.
· Investing
- The Bitcoin Historian Says Kalshi Odds Put Sen. Warren Near 100%
The Nov. 14 post called the level the highest ever seen but gave no contract details, observation time or historical readings.
· Investing
- Prediction Market Prices Lutnick's Jan. 1 Exit Odds at 51.5%
A separate contract tied to a Dec. 1 departure deadline was priced at 20.5%.
· Insights & Views
- New Wallet Spends About $128,000 on Gen.G Before League of Legends Final
The wallet bought 207,408.2 shares at an average entry price of 62 cents as Gen.G prepares to face BLG in a best-of-five.
· Investing
- Kalshi Market Puts Cantwell at 97% for Senate Commerce Chair
The market estimate does not confirm that Cantwell has been appointed to the role.
· Investing
- Predict.fun Market Puts 9% Odds on 黄仁勋 Returning to 英伟达 by 2026 Year-End
The market lists a 6% probability by Nov. 30, 2026, and a 31% probability by Dec. 31, 2027.
· Investing
- CFTC Sues Louisiana After Judge Bars Kalshi and Other Operators
A temporary injunction covers more than 30 operators; the CFTC says it came without advance notice or a chance to respond.
· Regulation
- CFTC Sues Louisiana to Challenge State Limits on Event Contracts
The commission says Louisiana's order halted operations at more than 30 companies without notice or a chance to be heard.
· Regulation
- High Roller Technologies Sees Prediction Markets as a Potential 2027 Growth Driver
ROLR opened to the public Oct. 21, and High Roller expects Q4 2026 to be its first quarter with prediction-market revenue.
· Business
- Meta Tests an Employee Forecasting App Using Virtual Currency
The internal trial follows Meta’s discontinuation of Forecast in 2022. The company has not announced a public release date for iOS or Android.
· Business
- Trump Sends Two CFTC Nominees to Senate as Prediction-Market Rules Advance
The CFTC lists Chairman Michael S. Selig as its sole commissioner on a five-seat panel. If confirmed, the nominees would bring it to three members.
· Regulation
- House Oversight Staff Urge Limits on Officials’ Prediction Market Trades
The Nov. 13 staff memorandum recommends restrictions on contracts tied to government actions or political outcomes and presents a broader trading ban as an option.
· Regulation
- Kalshi’s Partial Shutdown Odds Rebound Above 40% Ahead of Dec. 12
The contract requires a partial shutdown at 10 a.m. ET Dec. 12, one day after current federal funding is scheduled to expire.
· Investing
- Prediction Markets Put Lutnick’s Exit Odds at 47% by Jan. 1, 2027
A separate contract showed a 40.5% chance he would leave by Nov. 30 as lawmakers scrutinize the administration’s China chip-export decisions.
· Investing
- CFTC Chair Michael Selig Says He Would Take Event Contract Fight to Supreme Court
Selig said the agency would seek to block states from bringing unlicensed-gambling cases against CFTC-regulated exchanges. He also outlined voluntary registration for exchanges without margin, leverage or financing.
· Regulation
- Polymarket Prices 40% Chance of 5-Year Treasury Yield Hitting 5.15% by Dec. 31
The contract’s implied probability rose 30% in 24 hours. It settles against Treasury yield data for Dec. 31, 2026, with a Jan. 14, 2027, fallback deadline.
· Investing
- Kraken Parent Payward Plans Prediction-Market Expansion and a Token
Adjusted EBITDA fell 67% year over year to $60 million, while funded accounts rose 37% year over year to 7.1 million by quarter-end.
· Business
- Polymarket Prices Former NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang’s SpaceX Role Odds at 7.45%
The contract requires an official announcement that Huang accepted or began a qualifying role by 11:59 p.m. ET Dec. 31, 2026. Odds briefly reached 16.75% after NVIDIA’s announcement.
· Investing
- Louisiana Judge Orders Kalshi, 30 Others to Geofence State
The order also covers Polymarket U.S., Robinhood and Coinbase, and bars offering or facilitating event contracts without a state license.
· Regulation
- DOJ and CFTC Sue Arkansas to Block Enforcement Against Kalshi
The complaint argues federal commodities law gives the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over futures, options and swaps traded on regulated platforms.
· Regulation
- Polymarket's November Bitcoin $75,000 Odds Fall to 30% in 24 Hours
The contract's implied probability was cut in half as Bitcoin traded at $68,837, down 6.03% over 24 hours.
· Investing
- Justice Department and CFTC Sue Arkansas Attorney General Over Kalshi
The lawsuit seeks to block future state actions against prediction markets regulated by the CFTC.
· Regulation
- Gemini Retail Spot Volume Falls to Lowest Since Q3 2023
Retail volume fell 14% to $600 million as institutional trading rose 26% to $3.9 billion. October’s average daily prediction traders were about 50% above the third-quarter average.
· Business
- Polymarket Account Places More Than $250,000 on 76ers to Win
The position showed a $77,800 unrealized loss as the Raptors led 33-31 in the second quarter.
· Investing
- Kalshi Ends Trump Jr. Advisory Deal After 1789 Capital Adds to Polymarket Stake
A Kalshi spokesperson said both sides agreed to end the contract. Discussions began after 1789 Capital led Polymarket’s latest funding round in August.
· Business
- Prediction Markets Put Jensen Huang’s Nov. 30 Departure Odds at 88%
The same market put the odds at 93% by March 31, 2027; the probabilities reflect bets, not a company decision.
· Business
- Prediction Markets Category Posts a 58.2% Average 30-Day Decline
Launchpads followed with a 32.7% average drop. The other five listed categories declined between 19.6% and 24.9%.
· Investing
- Underdog Partners With Plaee to Bring Event Contracts to More Platforms
The planned integration would put Underdog Exchange contracts in Plaee’s trading interface and backend, letting operators add them to existing products or launch branded markets.
· Business
- Prediction Market Lists Texas Data Center Moratorium Odds at 33% for 2029
The listed odds were 17.5% for July 1, 2027, 21.5% for Jan. 1, 2028, and 1.9% for Jan. 1, 2027.
· Investing
- Polymarket Puts Odds of Nvidia Ending 2026 Below $4 Trillion at 48%
The contract’s probability rose 18% in 24 hours. Settlement is based on Nvidia’s closing share price and outstanding shares on the year’s final trading day.
· Investing
- Judge Says CFTC Order Letting Kalshi Operate Gave Appearance of Collusion
The judge denied Novig’s bid to block New York from applying gambling laws to its sports contracts, finding they likely were not swaps under federal law.
· Regulation
- Nvidia Board Discussed Removing CEO Huang as Year-End Exit Odds Reach About 82%.
Nvidia shares fell more than 8% in after-hours trading.
· Business
- Polymarket Exit Odds for 黄仁勋 Reach 92.5% as Eight Traders Buy Contract
Eight large traders active on Polymarket and Hyperliquid bought about $102,000 in the contract within four hours of The Wall Street Journal’s report that Nvidia’s board was preparing to remove 黄仁勋.
· Investing
- Polymarket Puts Odds of Jensen Huang Leaving Nvidia’s CEO Role at 87% by Year-End
The year-end contract rose from about 16.5% a day earlier. A separate contract for a departure by Nov. 13 ET showed 69% on Polymarket and 71% on Kalshi.
· Investing
- CFTC Warning Raises Prospect of Enforcement Against Kalshi
Kalshi has described the regulatory dispute as procedural.
· Regulation
- Kalshi Taps Artnet Auction Data to Resolve Art Event Contracts
The first collaborative markets are live ahead of New York’s modern and contemporary art auctions; Miami Art Week in December is the next planned event.
· Business
- Polymarket Reorganizes as It Cuts Staff and Contractors
Marketing was a focus of the cuts.
· Business
- Democratic Senators Ask HHS to Address Drug Trial Market Risks
The letter cites possible effects on trial enrollment decisions and insider trading by researchers or regulators with access to nonpublic information.
· Regulation