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Prediction Markets
69 TokenPost stories are tagged Prediction Markets. The newest appear first.
Latest Prediction Markets stories
- Decrypt Announces Solana-Based Information Exchange With MYR
The platform will combine news, data, prices and probabilities with prediction markets, spot trading and other financial products rolling out in stages.
· Business
- CFTC Sends Two Prediction-Market Rules to White House for Review
The filings would define event contracts as swaps while excluding casino-style gambling products. Both remain pending and are not final rules.
· Regulation
- Record U.S. Crude Production May Shift Focus From Diesel Export Ban
Market pricing puts the chance of an announcement at 0.7% by Oct. 1 and 16.5% by Nov. 1, while no White House proposal has reached the Senate.
· Regulation
- CFTC Sends Two Competing Event-Contract Rules to OIRA for Review
The proposals would define whether event contracts fall inside or outside the Commodity Exchange Act’s swap definition.
· Regulation
- House Panel Expands Prediction-Market Probe to Three Trading Platforms
The committee seeks records on customer checks, geographic controls and suspicious-trading surveillance, with responses due Oct. 13.
· Regulation
- Kalshi, Polymarket Face Scrutiny Over Trading Volume Patterns
Kalshi attributes activity in Ether perpetuals to liquidity programs, while Polymarket says professional traders exploit pricing differences across international prediction markets.
· Investing
- Lula Announces Fourth-Term Bid in Brazil’s 2026 Election
The incumbent president’s bid could affect Brazil’s economic policy, global alliances and ties with the United States.
· Regulation
- CFTC Investigates Adam Kinzinger Over Kalshi Pardon Trades
A linked account made about 25 trades tied to Kinzinger’s potential pardon and Joe Biden’s preemptive pardons, reporting an $823 gain.
· Regulation
- Adam Kinzinger Says He Made Kalshi Bets on a Biden Pardon
He said the trades produced $823 across about 25 transactions and that he had no material nonpublic information.
· Regulation
- Kalshi Plans to End Its Volume Incentive Program on Oct. 13
The program was designed to improve order-book liquidity and pricing efficiency across Kalshi markets. Rewards will stop after the termination takes effect.
· Business
- Hyperliquid Co-Founder Sees “Huge Opportunity” in Private Markets
Jeff Yan said broader access to pricing for restricted assets could create social value as Hyperliquid explores wider financial markets.
· People
- Kalshi Files to Terminate Volume Incentive Program After 10-Day Review
KalshiEX LLC filed Sept. 28 to terminate a reward program tied to qualifying trading volume, with Oct. 13 listed as the earliest possible effective date.
· Regulation
- Prediction-Market Traders Bet September Jobs Growth Will Beat 84,000 Estimate
Kalshi contracts show nearly 60% odds of more than 90,000 new jobs, while Polymarket traders see roughly even odds of growth above 100,000.
· Investing
- Kalshi in Talks for $1 Billion Financing at $40 Billion Valuation
The prediction-market platform is discussing the financing with new and existing investors, with completion expected in the coming weeks.
· Business
- Kalshi’s May Financing Valued the Company at $22 Billion
Kalshi announced a $1 billion Series F on May 7, while an Aug. 25 SEC filing listed a nearly $1.5 billion private offering.
· Business
- House Panel Expands Prediction-Market Probe to Three More Platforms
The inquiry seeks records on customer verification, internal monitoring and suspicious-trading reports from Hyperliquid Labs, Crypto.com and Aristotle Exchange.
· Regulation
- House Oversight Committee Expands Insider-Trading Probe to Crypto Platforms
James Comer requested records from Hyperliquid Labs, Crypto.com and Aristotle Exchange, which operates PredictIt, on identity checks and insider-trading controls.
· Regulation
- Comer Expands House Probe Into Prediction-Market Insider Trading Risks
Letters seek records from Hyperliquid Labs, Crypto.com and Aristotle Exchange on customer checks and suspicious-trade detection.
· Regulation
- Raven Closes Funding Round at $90 Million Pre-Money Valuation
Coinbase Ventures and CMCC Global joined the strategic round as Raven expands its prediction-market liquidity business across more than 3,000 contracts.
· Business
- Polymarket Hires Goldman Sachs Veteran to Lead Institutional Growth
Lisa Mantil will help attract Wall Street liquidity as prediction markets expand beyond retail trading and sports-related contracts.
· People
- Polymarket Odds of Ether Reaching $2,800 Rise to 32% in September
The probability of Ether reaching $2,600 fell to 15%, down 34% over 24 hours, as of Sept. 29.
· Investing
- Prediction Markets Put Bitcoin’s 2026 $100,000 Odds Near One-Third
Kalshi pricing ranged from 38% to 40%, while Polymarket showed 31% for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of 2026.
· Investing
- U.S. Diesel Ban Odds Stand at 1.4% for Oct. 1 Contract
The White House has not made a final decision on proposed export restrictions. The Nov. 1 contract carried 11.5% YES odds.
· Regulation
- OpenAI Funding Sets $730 Billion Valuation Ahead of $1 Trillion Test
A prediction-market contract will resolve based on whether OpenAI reaches at least a $1 trillion public or private valuation by Dec. 31, 2026.
· Business
- Polymarket U.S. App Offers 15-Minute Bitcoin Up-or-Down Market
The market lets millions of users trade on whether Bitcoin will rise or fall during each 15-minute period.
· Investing
- Prediction Markets Put Anthropic’s November IPO Odds at 56%
The company has submitted a confidential draft Form S-1 but has not confirmed a listing date, offering size, share price or valuation.
· Business
- Polymarket Gives 66% Odds Trump Will Adopt New AI Name or Direct Federal Use by Dec. 31
The probability rose 17% in a week after Trump proposed “Super Intelligence” as an alternative term for artificial intelligence.
· Regulation
- Senate Blocks CLARITY Act From Advancing in 49-50 Vote
The procedural defeat stalls a federal crypto-market structure bill after disputes over ethics, consumer protections, prediction markets and gaming rights.
· Regulation
- Sixth Circuit Rules Kalshi Sports Contracts Are Not Federal Swaps
The ruling allows Ohio and Tennessee to apply their gambling laws to Kalshi’s sports-event contracts and removes a key federal shield for the platform.
· Regulation
- Sixth Circuit Lets Ohio, Tennessee Regulate Kalshi Sports Contracts
The ruling deepens a split among federal appeals courts over whether states or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission can oversee Kalshi’s event contracts.
· Regulation
- Kalshi Can Keep Offering Event Contracts in Ohio, Tennessee
A Sixth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruling allows Kalshi to continue operating its event-contract business in both states.
· Regulation
- Prediction Markets Give Ether 68% Odds of Reaching $3,000 in 2026
Contracts also assigned Zcash a 53% chance of reaching $2,000, while year-end markets measure closing prices rather than temporary price touches.
· Investing
- Kalshi Loses Sixth Circuit Appeal Over Sports-Event Contracts
The unanimous ruling allows Ohio and Tennessee to regulate Kalshi’s sports contracts under state gambling laws, deepening a federal court split.
· Regulation
- Sixth Circuit Clears Ohio, Tennessee To Enforce Laws Against Kalshi
The ruling removes preliminary protections for the prediction-market operator but does not itself order user blocks in either state.
· Regulation
- CFTC Guidance Calls for Stricter Scrutiny of ‘Mention Markets’
Contracts tied to an individual’s words face heightened manipulation concerns, but a gap remains when the person has no holdings or trading activity.
· Regulation
- Polymarket Bank-Failure Contracts Draw FDIC Officials’ Concern
Contracts involving JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo recorded about $76,000 in year-end trading volume on Polymarket’s overseas platform.
· Regulation
- Sixth Circuit Says Kalshi Sports Contracts Face State Gambling Oversight
The ruling says the contracts are not swaps subject to Commodity Futures Trading Commission rules, affecting disputes in Ohio and Tennessee.
· Regulation
- Appeals Court Rules States Can Regulate Kalshi Sports Contracts
The unanimous ruling lets Ohio and Tennessee apply gambling laws to Kalshi’s sports event contracts, adding to a growing appeals-court split over federal oversight.
· Regulation
- 35% of Respondents Use Sportsbooks Less as Tax Fight Grows
A September survey found that prediction markets are changing sportsbook use, while conflicting estimates put potential state tax effects at more than $500 million.
· Regulation
- Morgan Stanley Joins NEXTPredict NYC as Strategic Partner
The bank will lead the summit’s Institutional and Capital panel as prediction markets seek broader use in trading, forecasting and risk management.
· Business