Ethereum Price Outlook: ETF Outflows and On-Chain Signals Hint at Potential Rebound

Ethereum price action remains under pressure, but a closer look at ETF flows and on-chain metrics suggests conditions may be forming for a potential rebound. While short-term sentiment around ETH has weakened, historical price behavior and long-term holder data indicate that the current pullback could be more cyclical than structural, keeping the broader recovery narrative intact.

Over the past two weeks, Ethereum ETFs have experienced consistent net outflows, with only one trading session recording net inflows driven primarily by Grayscale-related activity. This trend highlights caution among traditional finance investors, as capital continues to exit ETH-focused exchange-traded funds. Despite this, the persistent ETF selling does not necessarily signal a long-term loss of confidence in Ethereum. Similar phases of ETF weakness in the past have often preceded periods of stabilization, particularly when price approaches key technical support levels.

From a technical perspective, Ethereum has been trading near the $2,978 level, struggling to decisively reclaim the psychological $3,000 mark. This consolidation has raised concerns that ETH could remain capped below $3,000 heading into 2025. However, a potential retest of the $2,798 support zone could serve as a healthy reset. Historically, this area has attracted buyers, and a successful bounce could shift market expectations and restore upward momentum.

On-chain data strengthens this cautiously optimistic outlook. The Ethereum HODler Net Position Change metric, which tracks long-term holder behavior, has surged to levels not seen in roughly five months. This suggests that long-term holders are reducing selling pressure and gradually regaining confidence in Ethereum’s recovery potential. If this indicator moves above the zero line, it would confirm net accumulation by long-term investors, a signal that has historically supported price stabilization and trend reversals.

If Ethereum manages to reclaim $3,000 as support, the next upside target sits near $3,131, with further gains possible if momentum builds. However, downside risks remain. A breakdown below $2,798 could weaken the bullish structure and open the door for a move toward $2,681, reinforcing near-term bearish pressure. For now, Ethereum’s price outlook hinges on how it reacts around these critical levels, as ETF dynamics and on-chain signals continue to evolve.