XRP Hovers Near $1.30 as ETF Outflows, US Policy Uncertainty Weigh

Ripple (XRP) hovered precariously above the $1.30 level in latest trading, with bearish technical signals intensifying as ETF outflows and U.S. legislative uncertainty weighed on risk appetite. The combination has left the token vulnerable to a deeper slide should key support give way.

As of early Thursday ET, XRP was changing hands around $1.31, down about 2% over the past 24 hours. The move extends a broader downtrend that has translated into roughly a 30% decline year-to-date, underscoring how macro and policy headlines are increasingly dictating near-term direction for major altcoins.

Technically, XRP remains in a weak configuration. The token is trading below its 7-day moving average near $1.33, its 14-day average around $1.37, and its 30-day average near $1.39—levels that traders often treat as proxies for short- and medium-term momentum. The Money Flow Index (MFI), a volume-weighted indicator used to gauge buying and selling pressure, sat near 35, approaching ‘oversold’ territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovered around 38, consistent with persistent bearish momentum. The MACD indicator also continued to flash a downward bias.

Market watchers said the $1.30 area has become a pivotal battleground. A clean break below that level could open the door to a rapid retest of $1.00—or lower—particularly in an environment where liquidity is thin and catalysts are scarce. XRP remains about 8% above its 52-week low near $1.21, but still roughly 64% below its cycle high around $3.65, highlighting the distance needed for a sentiment-driven recovery.

Algorithmic forecasts have also tilted cautious. Several AI-based pricing models projected an average XRP price near $1.22 by April 30, implying a further decline of roughly 7% from current levels. One model published by Gemini pointed to a more bearish scenario, suggesting XRP could slip toward $1.12 if downside momentum persists.

Flow data is reinforcing the fragile tone. XRP-linked ETFs recorded an estimated $1.32 million in net outflows on Wednesday, according to figures cited in the report, while weekly flows have swung sharply from inflows earlier this year to sizable net redemptions by mid-March. On-chain activity has been similarly choppy: the number of active addresses fell from roughly 31,000 on Tuesday to about 18,000 on Wednesday, a pullback that traders often interpret as fading participation during drawdowns.

That weakness has persisted even as Ripple announced fresh corporate developments. The company recently disclosed a partnership with Convera, a global payments firm the report valued at $190 billion, aiming to expand stablecoin-based cross-border payment services across more than 200 countries. Still, traders appeared to discount the headline as largely neutral for XRP spot demand, echoing previous partnership announcements that improved business optics without generating immediate token-buying pressure.

Ripple also rolled out Ripple Treasury, a service designed to integrate crypto and cash management, but the launch coincided with a market downturn and failed to change short-term price dynamics. Additional credibility markers—such as a BBB rating referenced in the report and expectations for wider margins at Ripple Prime in 2026—have likewise done little to shift near-term sentiment in XRP markets.

Instead, analysts are increasingly pointing to U.S. policy as the primary swing factor, particularly the ‘CLARITY Act’ and its path through the Senate. The legislation is expected to face a Senate markup later this month, and market participants see passage as a potential unlock for improved regulatory clarity that could revive ‘institutional demand’ via renewed ETF inflows. In the more optimistic scenario outlined by observers, that could help propel XRP back into a $2 to $3.65 range over time.

But the downside case remains prominent. If the bill is delayed or fails to advance, XRP could remain trapped in a $1.00 to $1.50 band for the remainder of 2026, according to the report’s cited market commentary—an outcome that would likely keep speculative positioning restrained and reduce appetite for dip-buying.

Macro data is adding another layer of uncertainty. Traders are also bracing for U.S. labor-market releases due Thursday, alongside lingering inflation concerns that could influence expectations for interest rates and broader risk-asset ‘liquidity conditions.’ For now, technical analysts say the market’s focus is straightforward: whether XRP can defend $1.30 in the absence of a clear positive catalyst.