Fed Rate Hold Odds Reach 77.3% for October, Increase Scenario Leads by December

The chance of the Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged for October is 77.3%, while a cumulative 25-basis-point increase is the most likely increase scenario by December, at 67.8%.

The October probabilities assign a 22.7% chance to a cumulative 25-basis-point increase. For December, the listed probabilities are 13.4% for no change, 67.8% for a cumulative 25-basis-point increase and 18.8% for a cumulative 50-basis-point increase.