Bond Volatility Rises as Bitcoin and Stocks Stay Calm

Bitcoin (BTC) and U.S. stocks have seen subdued expected swings as volatility measures for Treasury and corporate bonds have climbed, widening a gap between bond markets and risk assets.

The MOVE Index, which tracks expected volatility in U.S. interest rates, closed at 113.6 on Oct. 5. It had risen 13 points to 110 during the prior week, three points below its one-year high. The readings reflect different measurement times.

Corporate bond volatility also increased. Investment-grade bond volatility rose from the sixth percentile two weeks earlier to the 79th percentile. High-yield bond volatility climbed from the 11th percentile to the 84th percentile.

The MOVE Index measures expected changes in Treasury yields, not their direction. Its divergence from stock and crypto volatility does not establish that either market will become more volatile.

Treasury securities play a central role in global finance, and changing rate expectations can affect borrowing costs and risk premiums. A similar gap between Treasury and Bitcoin volatility appeared in earlier market coverage.