Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 Trails Prediction-Market Rivals in Volume

Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 prediction-market system recorded about $317 million in cumulative volume by Oct. 5, but fewer markets, thinner liquidity and a smaller audience have kept activity well below larger rivals.

HIP-4 generated about $51 million in September and averaged roughly $1.25 million in daily volume during the first five days of October. The system’s performance reflects Hyperliquid’s effort to add event-based contracts alongside its established perpetual futures trading.

A Trading-First Design

HIP-4 launched May 2 with 691 protocol-operated markets. External venues were admitted Aug. 29, but only three had staked by Oct. 5.

The system is built into Hyperliquid’s existing trading environment. Users can access shared accounts, collateral and matching infrastructure for prediction markets and perpetual contracts. Binary contracts use separate assets for each outcome and settle under predefined conditions.

“The thing HIP-4 most resembles is not Polymarket, but an options ticket sitting next to your perpetual position,” Mario Chow said.

That integration gives HIP-4 access to Hyperliquid’s existing derivatives audience. Its rivals, however, offer broader coverage across sports, politics, economic events and breaking news, helping them reach a larger audience.

The comparison is also visible in liquidity. The median bid-ask spread across the 25 most active HIP-4 order books was 0.29 cents. A $10,000 market buy typically paid 2% to 3% above the best ask, while four or five books could not absorb the order against visible quotes.

Separate venues can further divide activity between markets covering the same question. A Federal Reserve market on Outcome recorded $354,000 in seven-day volume, compared with $90 on Trade.xyz.

Sports Drive Activity

Sports markets have generated much of HIP-4’s volume. Soccer contributed $89.5 million, or 28% of cumulative volume.

During the previous 30 days, soccer, American football and esports accounted for 45% of volume. Crypto-price markets represented 42%, while stocks and commodities accounted for 7% and Federal Reserve markets made up 6%.

At-risk capital was even more concentrated in sports, which accounted for two-thirds of the total. Crypto-price markets represented 17%. The daily Bitcoin market also fell 93% from its May peak.

The system has attempted to attract third-party venues and participants through incentives. Anyone can deploy a market after staking 500,000 HYPE, and settlement rules must be included in an approved template before trading begins.

The number of approved templates reached 28, up from 18 in mid-September. The testnet had 95 registered deployers, compared with three on the mainnet.

Outcome accounted for 92% of external-venue volume since Aug. 29. Its $1 million rewards program had paid $273,409 to 2,487 wallets by Oct. 5, averaging about $7,400 per day.

Economics Remain a Test

HIP-4 was generating about $480,000 in annualized fees at its recent pace, while the rewards program was running at an annualized $2.7 million.

Recent annualized fees of about $480,000 remained below the rewards program’s annualized cost of $2.7 million.

“The blocks are well built; the market hasn’t come,” Chow said.

Hyperliquid’s public API exposes outcome-market metadata, outcome assets and order-book information. The platform’s next challenge is converting its technical integration and existing trader distribution into sustained liquidity and a broader market base.

“That’s worth doing, but not worth valuing as a prediction-market business,” Chow said.