Prediction Markets See Gas Prices Above $4 on Election Day

Prediction-market contracts put the odds at 87% that the national average gasoline price will remain above $4 per gallon on Nov. 3, indicating limited relief for U.S. drivers before the midterm elections.

The national average stood at $4.36 per gallon Thursday. Contracts assigned a 42% chance that prices would remain above $4.25 on Election Day, suggesting prices may ease from current levels while staying above $4.

Diesel prices were $6.28 per gallon Thursday after reaching nearly $6.53 on Sept. 22. The contracts placed the chance of diesel remaining above $6 on Nov. 3 at 68%.

Gasoline prices climbed sharply in March after the start of the U.S.-Iran war and Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for oil exports from the Middle East. The national average reached $4.56 in late May before falling to $3.79 in early July. Prices then rose through the summer.

Diesel costs have a greater effect in states with large agriculture industries, including Iowa and Kansas. Alaska also faces higher exposure because it relies on diesel fuel for electricity.

The three states have competitive U.S. Senate races this November, placing fuel prices among the economic pressures facing voters ahead of the Nov. 3 elections.