U.S. Consumer Prices Projected to Rise 0.6% in September

U.S. consumer prices are projected to rise 0.6% in September, with a nearly 10% increase in gasoline prices expected to drive most of the monthly gain and shape the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

Gasoline is expected to contribute 0.4 percentage point to the overall increase. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is projected to rise 0.2% for the month.

The gap between headline and core inflation is expected to give the Federal Reserve room to refrain from tightening policy at its upcoming meeting. The projection points to energy costs as the main source of September’s increase rather than broad-based pressure across the consumer basket.

Core-goods inflation could also be affected in the coming months by Apple’s new iPhone pricing and the gradual pass-through of producer prices. Weaker used-car prices could also affect the outlook, while goods are viewed as more likely than services to produce a surprise in core inflation.

The official September consumer price report is scheduled for Oct. 14, part of the key market calendar outlined in TokenPost’s coverage of the Fed decision and September CPI.