U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Nears 24-Year High as Pimco Flags 6%

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is approaching a 24-year high, while Pimco says the benchmark could reach 6% as inflation concerns, oil prices and heavy government borrowing weigh on bond markets.

The yield was around 5.29% on Oct. 9, just below its recent 5.34% peak. The 5.34% level was the highest since 2002. The benchmark has risen almost 120 basis points in 2026 through Oct. 9.

Dan Ivascyn, Pimco’s chief investment officer, said a move toward 6% was possible. “You can certainly get there,” Ivascyn said. He also warned that yields of 5.5% or higher could cause “some decent weakness in risk markets, both credit and equity.”

Higher Treasury yields influence borrowing costs across the economy. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.40% for the week ending Oct. 8, up from 7.28% the previous week, while the 15-year average reached 6.73%.

Investors are contending with higher energy costs, persistent inflation concerns and expanding U.S. debt, increasing pressure on stocks, corporate bonds and other risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.