Trader Holds October Fed Hike Bet Alongside $4.45 Million in Shorts

A trader identified as tetrose is holding an October Federal Reserve rate-hike position while maintaining roughly $4.45 million in short exposure to Bitcoin and the S&P 500.

On Polymarket, tetrose holds about 297,800 Yes contracts tied to a 25-basis-point increase in October. The contracts were acquired at an average implied probability of about 23.42%, while the current market-implied probability is approximately 15.5%.

The position is now valued at about $46,200, leaving an unrealized loss of roughly $23,600.

The account also holds short positions through Hyperliquid, including a Bitcoin (BTC) position covering about 20.95 BTC. That short has a notional value of approximately $1.73 million and an unrealized loss of about $6,491.

The S&P 500 short is valued at roughly $2.71 million, with an unrealized loss of about $1,666. Together, the two positions have a notional value of approximately $4.45 million.

The Bitcoin short was reopened after an earlier position was stopped out Oct. 9. The account’s October rate-hike contracts and cross-market short positions remain open.