TokenPost topic
Polymarket
207 TokenPost stories are tagged Polymarket. The newest appear first.
Latest Polymarket stories
- Polymarket Prices Bitcoin’s November $62,500 Touch at 89%
The contract’s probability rose 55% in 24 hours and is settled using Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle highs.
· Investing
- CFTC Sues Louisiana After Judge Bars Kalshi and Other Operators
A temporary injunction covers more than 30 operators; the CFTC says it came without advance notice or a chance to respond.
· Regulation
- House Oversight Staff Urge Limits on Officials’ Prediction Market Trades
The Nov. 13 staff memorandum recommends restrictions on contracts tied to government actions or political outcomes and presents a broader trading ban as an option.
· Regulation
- Polymarket Targets Mid-December Nex Launch as Tests Cut Latency to 3.76 Milliseconds
The engine has run against production traffic in shadow mode for one week. Polymarket plans four more weeks of testing before a possible launch.
· Technology
- Polymarket Prices 40% Chance of 5-Year Treasury Yield Hitting 5.15% by Dec. 31
The contract’s implied probability rose 30% in 24 hours. It settles against Treasury yield data for Dec. 31, 2026, with a Jan. 14, 2027, fallback deadline.
· Investing
- Polymarket Prices Former NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang’s SpaceX Role Odds at 7.45%
The contract requires an official announcement that Huang accepted or began a qualifying role by 11:59 p.m. ET Dec. 31, 2026. Odds briefly reached 16.75% after NVIDIA’s announcement.
· Investing
- Polymarket's November Bitcoin $75,000 Odds Fall to 30% in 24 Hours
The contract's implied probability was cut in half as Bitcoin traded at $68,837, down 6.03% over 24 hours.
· Investing
- Polymarket Account Places More Than $250,000 on 76ers to Win
The position showed a $77,800 unrealized loss as the Raptors led 33-31 in the second quarter.
· Investing
- Louisiana Sues Kalshi and Polymarket Over Event Contracts in State Court
Attorney General Liz Murrill is seeking a restraining order and injunction, alleging the contracts violate state gambling and sports betting laws.
· Regulation
- Kalshi Ends Trump Jr. Advisory Deal After 1789 Capital Adds to Polymarket Stake
A Kalshi spokesperson said both sides agreed to end the contract. Discussions began after 1789 Capital led Polymarket’s latest funding round in August.
· Business
- Polymarket Puts Odds of Nvidia Ending 2026 Below $4 Trillion at 48%
The contract’s probability rose 18% in 24 hours. Settlement is based on Nvidia’s closing share price and outstanding shares on the year’s final trading day.
· Investing
- Nvidia Board Discussed Removing CEO Huang as Year-End Exit Odds Reach About 82%.
Nvidia shares fell more than 8% in after-hours trading.
· Business
- Polymarket Exit Odds for 黄仁勋 Reach 92.5% as Eight Traders Buy Contract
Eight large traders active on Polymarket and Hyperliquid bought about $102,000 in the contract within four hours of The Wall Street Journal’s report that Nvidia’s board was preparing to remove 黄仁勋.
· Investing
- Polymarket Puts Odds of Jensen Huang Leaving Nvidia’s CEO Role at 87% by Year-End
The year-end contract rose from about 16.5% a day earlier. A separate contract for a departure by Nov. 13 ET showed 69% on Polymarket and 71% on Kalshi.
· Investing
- Polymarket Lists Nvidia's Ian Buck at 30% in CEO Succession Market
Nvidia CFO Colette Kress was listed at 21%, while the option that the current CEO stays in the role was at 19%.
· People
- Polymarket Reorganizes as It Cuts Staff and Contractors
Marketing was a focus of the cuts.
· Business
- Democratic Senators Ask HHS to Address Drug Trial Market Risks
The letter cites possible effects on trial enrollment decisions and insider trading by researchers or regulators with access to nonpublic information.
· Regulation
- 1confirmation Decides to Increase Its Investment in Polymarket Again
1confirmation partner Nick Tomaino said the fund has backed every Polymarket financing round and sees information discovery as prediction markets’ lasting value.
· Business
- Missouri Countersues Novig as Polymarket US Challenges State Rules
The Nov. 9 filings bring two prediction market platforms into separate legal fights over Missouri’s authority to regulate sports contracts.
· Regulation
- CFTC Warns Kalshi It Could Face Action Over Contract Filings
The inquiry centers on required notices for dozens of planned contracts and Kalshi’s process for certifying new products.
· Regulation
- Polymarket Odds of Anthropic IPO Raising Under $65 Billion Fall to 30%
The contract counts shares in the formal offering at final pricing and excludes overallotments and concurrent private placements.
· Investing
- Polymarket Sets Three-Stage V2 Market Rollout Starting Nov. 23
The revised schedule adds launch dates on Nov. 24 and Dec. 1 after an earlier tentative Nov. 2 start.
· Technology
- Polymarket Says Its Revenue Pace Now Exceeds $1.8 Billion
Notional volume on its U.S. exchange topped $14.5 billion in October, up from $4 billion in June; the venue launched in May.
· Business
- Polymarket Adds 48-Hour Wait for New Withdrawal Addresses
Users can restrict withdrawals to approved addresses and cancel an unauthorized address addition by email.
· Technology
- Trader Adds to Bet Ether Won’t Touch $1,750 by Year-End
The JnStPrdctns account’s position was valued at about $56,200, implying a 72% market probability that Ether would avoid the threshold.
· Investing
- Settlement Disputes Send Five VAPE Markets to UMA Holder Vote
The contracts cover five FDV thresholds, from $50 million to $400 million, and the token-holder vote is expected to conclude Wednesday, Nov. 11.
· Investing
- Bitcoin Trader Books $79,600 as Short Position Falls to 85 BTC
58bro.eth cut a Bitcoin (BTC) short from 88 BTC to 85 BTC while retaining about $19.22 million in combined BTC and Ether (ETH) shorts.
· Investing
- Polymarket Lists Contract on 黄仁勋 Resignation or Removal Announcement by Dec. 31
The market showed a 13% probability Sunday evening in New York. A qualifying announcement must be public and explicit.
· Investing
- Democrats’ Midterm Win Followed Months of Prediction-Market Scrutiny
The Senate and House proposals were introduced March 26. Warren and Curtis made their bipartisan letter to the platforms public Oct. 29 and requested responses by Nov. 3.
· Regulation
- Polymarket History Does Not Establish Advance Access to Nebraska Poll
The trader may have continued betting 10 minutes after the Nebraska poll was published.
· Investing
- Polymarket Account Buys About $177,400 in Shares Backing T1
The account bought 404,999.1 shares at an average 43.8 cents apiece in a League of Legends S16 semifinal market.
· Investing
- CFTC Gives Prediction Markets 30 Days to End State Access Limits
The directive clashes with restrictions affecting Kalshi, including a California federal court bar on sports contracts on tribal lands.
· Regulation
- Polymarket Puts Hegseth at 31% in Cabinet Departure Market
The contract had nearly $190,000 in total volume, while traders put the chance of no Cabinet departure before 2027 at about 27%.
· Investing
- Polymarket Prices Ether’s November $2,200 Threshold at 91%
The probability rose 45% in 24 hours. Settlement depends on Binance ETH/USDT one-minute candle highs through Nov. 30.
· Investing
- Prediction Market Buyers Spent $22.7 Billion in October, More Than in 2025
The $22.7 billion cash measure topped the $20.9 billion buyers paid across all of 2025. Notional volume reached $123.6 billion as trades, fees and open interest also rose from September.
· Investing
- Polymarket Shows 19% Odds of No Anthropic IPO by Nov. 30
Its experimental summary showed 41.5% at noon ET Nov. 6, but the readings lack matching observation times.
· Investing
- Hollywood Firms Restrict Staff Bets on Entertainment Outcomes
Penske Media’s handbook covers award nominations, casting, production timelines and release dates. Kalshi and Polymarket also restrict some trades based on confidential information.
· Regulation
- Ignas Urges Polymarket to Improve Prediction Markets Instead of Perps
Ignas said active wallets, open interest and transaction counts were declining, while election trading volume was below sports and crypto markets.
· Investing
- Polygon Advances 70.49 Million POL Recovery Proposal After Governance Call
The plan would use a one-time hard fork to move POL from five blocked addresses to recovery wallets linked to Binance and Polymarket.
· Technology
- Kalshi Says Favorites Won 479 of 487 Early U.S. Midterm Races
The 98% tally covers congressional and state races resolved by 6 a.m. ET on Nov. 4.
· Investing