Prediction Markets See U.S. Inflation Peaking in 2026

U.S. inflation is expected to have reached its 2026 peak, while elevated core inflation is expected to remain a concern for markets ahead of Wednesday’s consumer price report.

September’s consumer price index is forecast to rise 3.6% from a year earlier, compared with a 3.4% increase in August. The expected reading would remain below the 4.2% annual inflation rate recorded in May.

Prediction-market contracts assign less than one-in-three odds to inflation reaching a new high before the end of 2026. The contracts also price September CPI levels and whether inflation will exceed specified thresholds at any point during the year.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to come in at 2.4% year over year. The contracts assign a 6% probability to core inflation falling below 2.2% by the end of 2026.

Annual core inflation was last below that level before the inflation surge that began in 2021. The forecast indicates that underlying price growth is expected to remain elevated even if headline inflation has already peaked.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the September CPI data Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET (12:30 p.m. UTC). The report will provide the next official measure of consumer-price growth as investors assess the inflation outlook.