Market Pricing Puts October Fed Rate Hike Probability at 23.8%

Market pricing assigns a 23.8% probability to a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the October meeting, keeping the near-term policy outlook central to liquidity expectations for crypto markets.

As of Oct. 14, the probability of the Federal Reserve leaving its policy rate unchanged stands at 76.2%.

The hike probability has fallen sharply since Sept. 30. It rose from 49.8% to 68.1% by that date before dropping to 19.4% on Oct. 7 and later rebounding modestly to the current level.

The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate in September to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. The latest pricing marks a significant shift from the hawkish expectations seen at the end of September.

The October meeting has become a key reference point for near-term liquidity expectations. The market’s cumulative rate path through December is the next major focus.