SpaceX Retakes Polymarket Lead in 2026 IPO Race as Anthropic Valuation Talk Cools

SpaceX has moved back ahead of Anthropic in Polymarket’s market on which company will have the largest initial public offering by market capitalization in 2026. At 5 a.m. ET (9 a.m. UTC) Saturday, Oct. 17, the contract showed a 64% probability for SpaceX and 35.9% for Anthropic.

The shift followed investor discussions about a lower possible valuation for Anthropic. At an Oct. 14 investor meeting in San Francisco, some participants discussed a valuation near $1.5 trillion, down from roughly $2 trillion previously expected for a November share sale. The lower figure was discussed by investors; it was not an IPO price announced by Anthropic.

The company told prospective investors that third-quarter revenue reached $16.8 billion, up 45% from $11.6 billion in the second quarter. Second-quarter revenue rose from $4.7 billion in the first quarter to $11.6 billion, and Anthropic reported adjusted profitability in the third quarter.

The contract’s rules make SpaceX’s first-day trading performance the relevant benchmark. Its shares were priced at $135 in the IPO and closed their first trading day, June 12, at $160.95, giving SpaceX a market capitalization of about $2.1 trillion. The roughly $1.77 trillion figure often cited for the IPO reflects the company’s value at the offering price.

That distinction matters because the market compares first-day closing values, not IPO price tags. A reported $1.5 trillion valuation discussion alone does not determine whether Anthropic could surpass SpaceX’s first-day market value.