Dan Kirsche Sees Strong U.S. Stock Gains in November and December

Jefferies market intelligence analyst Dan Kirsche expects U.S. stocks to gain in November and December, as recent market moves show technology weakness alongside broader participation.

The Nasdaq is about 5% below its high, while the equal-weight S&P 500 has rebounded about 7% to 8% from its low. Kirsche said the divergence shows gains extending beyond technology stocks, even as that sector remains under pressure.

Kirsche sees a possible retest of the S&P 500’s 100-day moving average near 7,600. The index’s recent gains have not ruled out another decline, he said.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen for eight consecutive sessions, putting it on track for its longest losing streak since May 2006. BTIG analyst Jonathan Krinsky sees the possibility of a short-term rebound but further downside over the medium term. Kirsche identifies 11,000 as the index’s next key support level.

Kirsche also expects the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, around 5.13%, to fall to 5% and potentially decline further to 4.8%.