PaperTrade Model Values PAPER at 67 to 86 Cents Under Supply Scenarios

A revenue model puts PaperTrade’s PAPER token at 67 to 86 cents under future-supply scenarios, as early protocol income and near-universal staking focus attention on how much revenue each token might represent.

PaperTrade generated $23.97 million in holder revenue on Oct. 10 and $33.94 million from Oct. 10 through Oct. 13. Holder revenue refers to income attributed to token holders; PaperTrade distributes USDC revenue to stakers. The figures show revenue over those periods, while the model estimates value using annualized revenue and assumed future token supplies.

The platform’s early activity also included about $1.15 trillion in cumulative nominal trading volume and $67.55 million in total value locked. It recorded about 14,900 first-deposit addresses and $241 million in cumulative deposits. PaperTrade’s revenue and trader net losses were also covered in earlier reporting on the platform.

PaperTrade users trade against a liquidity pool, so they do not need another user to take the opposite side of a trade. The platform charges no funding rate and no fee for opening a position or losing a trade. Eligible trading losses can generate PAPER, and stakers can receive a share of protocol revenue in USDC.

Initially, each $1 in eligible losses could generate up to 100 PAPER. The minting rate began to decline after tracked liquidity crossed $2 million. When liquidity exceeds $5 million, the protocol directs the excess toward staker distributions. These rules tie token issuance and staking rewards to trading losses and liquidity.

By Oct. 16, about 8.1 billion of the 8.16 billion PAPER tokens in supply were staked, or 99.23%. The historical average daily staking revenue was about $5.06 million as of that date. Annualizing the daily figure over 365 days produces about $1.85 billion in revenue.

The valuation model applies a 6.53x market-cap-to-holder-revenue multiple, the lowest of three comparisons for PUMP, HYPE and LIT. It divides annualized revenue multiplied by that multiple across two future-supply assumptions: 18 billion PAPER yields an estimated 67 cents per token, while 14 billion yields 86 cents. The model uses holder revenue and does not count the $46.71 million in staking rewards already distributed as an additional asset.

Those figures are model scenarios, not observed public-market prices. PAPER is not publicly traded, though OTC exposure is available. The scenarios also assume supplies above the current 8.16 billion tokens; additional issuance would spread revenue across more tokens and reduce the amount assigned to each under the model.

PaperStrategy offers a separate, indirect reference point. The treasury on HyperEVM has staked about 154 million PAPER. A rough calculation based on its roughly $8.5 million market value, about $600,000 in balances not converted to PAPER, and 10% buy and sell taxes implies a value of about 6.4 cents per PAPER. That estimate comes from a separate treasury token and is not a public-market quote for PAPER.

The model and treasury estimate differ because they use different inputs: one applies a revenue multiple to future supply scenarios, while the other derives an implied value from PaperStrategy’s market value and PAPER holdings. Whether PaperTrade sustains the early revenue used in the model remains central to its valuation.