Markets Put October Fed Rate-Hike Odds at 15.5%, Hold Odds at 84.5%

Enna Lee

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Markets Put October Fed Rate-Hike Odds at 15.5%, Hold Odds at 84.5%

The figures are market-implied probabilities for the Fed’s October decision, not an announced policy move.

By Enna Lee

Published Oct 17, 2026, 11:40 PM EDT

A brass balance scale rests on broad stone steps in morning light / TokenPost.ai

Market pricing assigned an 84.5% probability to the Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged in October and a 15.5% probability to a 25-basis-point increase, as of Oct. 18.

The figures are market-implied probabilities for the October rate outcome. They do not represent a Federal Reserve decision or announcement.

Enna Lee

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Enna Lee reports on investing and digital-asset markets for TokenPost. Send corrections or tips to info@tokenpost.com.