Bitcoin Reacts More Sharply to Core CPI Surprises Than Before March 2020

Across 108 U.S. core inflation releases, Bitcoin (BTC) showed a stronger immediate reaction to surprises since 2024 than before March 2020.

In the five minutes after hotter-than-expected readings since 2024, Bitcoin’s return averaged 0.6% below its response to reports classified as in line with forecasts. Cooler readings produced an average return 0.5% above that baseline. The figures describe differences between groups of releases, not a fixed gain or loss after every report.

The baseline includes 45 releases whose core consumer price index (CPI) readings were within 0.05 percentage points of the median forecast. A reading could qualify as in line without matching the forecast exactly. Core CPI excludes food and energy prices.

The strongest five-minute responses occurred during the Federal Reserve’s 2022-23 rate-hike cycle. The response has moderated since then but remains stronger than it was in the study’s September 2017 through February 2020 period. That comparison concerns trading immediately after an inflation release, not Bitcoin’s returns over subsequent days or weeks.

The Oct. 14 release of September inflation data showed core CPI 0.1 percentage point above the median forecast. Bitcoin fell 1.2% over the next five minutes. Core CPI itself rose 0.3% from August. That release provides one example of the short-term move measured across the study.

The analysis used Binance’s BTC/USDT market and measured returns over two overlapping periods beginning at each 8:30 a.m. ET release (12:30 or 13:30 UTC, depending on daylight saving time). One period lasted five minutes and the other 30 minutes. The 30-minute results were less consistent than the immediate response.

The price moves do not establish who placed the trades or explain Bitcoin’s longer-term returns. The comparison shows how Bitcoin traded around inflation releases relative to its response when readings were roughly in line with forecasts.

BitGo launched its research unit in September. The next U.S. CPI release is due Nov. 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET (13:30 UTC).