OpenAI Valuation Contract Sets a $1.25 Trillion Year-End Test

A Polymarket contract tests whether OpenAI reaches a $1.25 trillion valuation by Dec. 31, 2026, while proposed terms for a roughly $30 billion financing could value the company above $1.4 trillion.

OpenAI was seeking commitments for the proposed financing. The round had not been announced as closed as of Oct. 19.

The contract primarily uses valuations published by Nasdaq Private Market to determine whether OpenAI reaches the threshold by the deadline. Its rules also include provisions for an IPO or direct listing.

OpenAI’s last announced round closed on March 31, 2026, at an $852 billion post-money valuation and included $122 billion in committed capital. The proposed financing valuation and the contract’s $1.25 trillion threshold are separate measures.