Wells Fargo Says Midterm Results Won’t Change Its Market Outlook

Wells Fargo Investment Institute expects the Nov. 3 midterm results to leave its investment outlook unchanged, with economic growth, earnings, inflation and interest rates carrying more weight for the broader market.

That view holds across three possible congressional outcomes: a split Congress, continued Republican control, or Democratic control of Congress under a Republican president. The institute’s economic outlook remains the same in each scenario.

Election results could still shape U.S. digital-asset policy. Congressional control may affect the timing and direction of regulation, ranging from incremental changes to broader legislation such as the Clarity Act. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has urged voters to consider candidates’ crypto positions ahead of the midterms in comments on the election.

A historical comparison covering 23 Congresses, from 1979-80 through 2023-24, found average cumulative real GDP growth of 5.33% during seven Congresses with single-party control. The average was 5.41% during 16 Congresses with divided chambers. The figures measure inflation-adjusted growth over each two-year congressional term.

Policy changes after the election may have effects concentrated in particular industries, including defense, energy, health care, housing and AI infrastructure. The institute’s broader market view remains focused on economic conditions and company earnings rather than the balance of power in Congress.

Federal deficits and Treasury borrowing are among the forces the institute expects to keep longer-term interest rates elevated through 2027. Those rates are one of the factors in its market outlook, alongside inflation and economic growth.

The institute favors U.S. large-cap stocks, short-term taxable fixed-income investments and commodities. It remains unfavorable on long-term taxable fixed income. Jennifer Timmerman, a global macro analyst, summed up the approach: “Take political views to the polls, not to your portfolio.”

The midterm election is Nov. 3.