The Bitcoin Historian Says Kalshi Senate Odds Reached 66%

The Bitcoin Historian claimed in an Oct. 22 post that Kalshi odds of Democrats winning the Senate in November had reached 66%, calling it the highest level yet. The post linked the election outlook to the future of U.S. crypto legislation and urged voters to consider crypto when casting ballots.

The account accused Democrats of blocking the CLARITY Act and opposing Bitcoin (BTC) policy. Those statements were the poster’s characterization of the party’s record and position on crypto.

The Senate-only claim differs from an Oct. 10 prediction-market snapshot that placed the odds of Democrats winning both chambers at 62%. One outcome covers Senate control; the other requires Democrats to win the House and Senate. The two percentages refer to different outcomes and dates, so they do not show a direct change in one market. An earlier report on Democratic sweep odds detailed the Oct. 10 snapshot, which also showed more than $21.2 million in trading volume.

The U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for Nov. 3, 2026.